A Closer Look: Commodities

The GSCI Commodity Index ((GSG)) consists primarily of Energy, but also includes Agriculture, Industrial Metals, Livestock, and Precious Metals as part of its holdings. The index broke down during the month of July on the back of a stronger US Dollar. It failed a critical test once it broke through the 200-day moving average, and .. read more

On September 1st, 2014, posted in: Weekly Update by

Secular Stagnation Or The Cusp Of A Boom?

I’ve mentioned several times recently that within Alhambra we often have vigorous debates about the economy and markets. I’m a big believer in the power of competition to improve outcomes whether we are talking about the macro economy or the micro debates about portfolio strategy in which we engage. The debates we have internally are .. read more

A Closer Look: World Markets

Despite geopolitical risks such as Ukraine, Iraq, and Gaza, the  S&P 500 Index (IVV) managed to make new all-time highs, inching ever so closer to the 2000 level. After staggering in late July and into August, the index has come roaring back, gaining over 4% while also taking back the 50-day moving average. But beware .. read more

On August 24th, 2014, posted in: Weekly Update by

The Jackson Hole Snoozefest

The stock market rallied hard into Janet Yellen’s speech Friday at Jackson Hole, expecting some epiphany I suppose about the future course of monetary policy. What we got instead was Labor Market Dynamics And Monetary Policy, the purpose of which I can only suppose was to bore the market to death. Economics is not the .. read more

The Art & Science Of Investing

In last week’s update I mentioned that within our own shop we often have disagreements about the economy and markets. Based on my email flow, that seems to have surprised and possibly confused some people. So, I want to spend some time this week talking about investing more generally rather than concentrating on the week .. read more

A Closer Look: Market Style

Under uncertain yet seemingly improving economic conditions, the S&P 500 Index((IVV)) has inched its way forward for much of the year, gaining just over 7% during this low-volume, low-volatility period. It remains just below support at the 50-day moving average after bouncing off the 1900 level in the last two weeks. The index is up .. read more

On August 17th, 2014, posted in: Weekly Update by 1 Comment

A Closer Look: Market Cap

The S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index ((IVV))  has been on a slow, stubborn march forward for much of the year before breaking through the 50-day moving average on its way to support at the 1900 level. The S&P 500 is up 5.71% for the year after making a new all-time high just two weeks ago. Is .. read more

On August 10th, 2014, posted in: Weekly Update by 1 Comment


Stocks managed to finish the week on a positive note after a volatile ride that seemed to be based mostly on the changing geopolitical situation. Stocks fell with the imposition of retaliatory sanctions from Russia and rose as Putin seemed to back off at the end of the week. Thrown into the mix was an .. read more