201409.14
1
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A Closer Look: Market Cap

The S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index ((IVV))  has been on a slow, stubborn march forward to the 2000 level for much of the year, but it seems as if the market has tired a bit in the last couple of weeks. If the index doesn’t bounce off the 50-day moving average this coming week, we might…

201409.14
3
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Good Times, Bad Times

The economic data has taken on a more positive tone recently, at least in some areas, and with an FOMC meeting and Janet Yellen press conference on the schedule this week, the bulls pulled in their horns last week. It seems that, for now anyway, good news is bad news for markets as any indication…

201409.07
6
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Who You Gonna Believe?

I don’t believe it. … You can’t predict a weak number, but August tends to be weak consistently, and it tends to get revised up consistently. I think the trend is still north of 200,000. Every other data point is pointing to stronger growth, not weaker growth. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s after last…

201409.01
1
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A Closer Look: Commodities

The GSCI Commodity Index ((GSG)) consists primarily of Energy, but also includes Agriculture, Industrial Metals, Livestock, and Precious Metals as part of its holdings. The index broke down during the month of July on the back of a stronger US Dollar. It failed a critical test once it broke through the 200-day moving average, and…

201409.01
3
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Secular Stagnation Or The Cusp Of A Boom?

I’ve mentioned several times recently that within Alhambra we often have vigorous debates about the economy and markets. I’m a big believer in the power of competition to improve outcomes whether we are talking about the macro economy or the micro debates about portfolio strategy in which we engage. The debates we have internally are…

201408.24
0
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A Closer Look: World Markets

Despite geopolitical risks such as Ukraine, Iraq, and Gaza, the  S&P 500 Index (IVV) managed to make new all-time highs, inching ever so closer to the 2000 level. After staggering in late July and into August, the index has come roaring back, gaining over 4% while also taking back the 50-day moving average. But beware…

201408.24
2
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The Jackson Hole Snoozefest

The stock market rallied hard into Janet Yellen’s speech Friday at Jackson Hole, expecting some epiphany I suppose about the future course of monetary policy. What we got instead was Labor Market Dynamics And Monetary Policy, the purpose of which I can only suppose was to bore the market to death. Economics is not the…

201408.17
3
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The Art & Science Of Investing

In last week’s update I mentioned that within our own shop we often have disagreements about the economy and markets. Based on my email flow, that seems to have surprised and possibly confused some people. So, I want to spend some time this week talking about investing more generally rather than concentrating on the week…

201408.17
1
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A Closer Look: Market Style

Under uncertain yet seemingly improving economic conditions, the S&P 500 Index((IVV)) has inched its way forward for much of the year, gaining just over 7% during this low-volume, low-volatility period. It remains just below support at the 50-day moving average after bouncing off the 1900 level in the last two weeks. The index is up…

201408.10
1
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A Closer Look: Market Cap

The S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index ((IVV))  has been on a slow, stubborn march forward for much of the year before breaking through the 50-day moving average on its way to support at the 1900 level. The S&P 500 is up 5.71% for the year after making a new all-time high just two weeks ago. Is…