201504.19
2
0

A Canary In The Coal Mine?

What does GE know that we don’t? That was my initial reaction to the news this week that GE is exiting the finance business that has provided it a seemingly endless stream of profits over the last three decades. Well, except for that little interruption that has come to be known as the Great Recession….

201504.12 0

Fast Money, Fast Markets

I should have known better than to write an article about the possibility of a correction in US stocks. I took a lot of abuse from the bulls this week as the US stock market shrugged off – again, for now – the weak economic data that just keeps coming. That light at the end…

201504.05
1
0

Bonds or Equities? Haters going to Hate

Our strategic macro economic research partner has a max underweight recommendation for bonds. Why the hate? For starters, real yields are 0%. While certainly better than the first quarter of 2013, is 0% the best we can hope to earn from our savings and investment dollars? Given current levels of GDP and current earnings yields for equities,…

201504.05
2
0

Is The Long Awaited Correction At Hand?

It’s been almost 4 years since the last 10% correction in US stock prices, one of the longest stretches on record. Historically, on average, we get a 10% correction about every 18 months. More severe bear markets, declines of 20% or more, are associated with recessions which are hard to predict and fairly rare. Corrections…

201503.29
2
0

Shifting Momentum

US stocks continued their recently more volatile ways this week giving up almost all the gains of last week. In fact, the S&P 500 is now basically flat for the last four months, making no headway since late November despite a series of nominal new highs along the way. As the Fed has backed away…

201503.22
Off
0

Macro Observations

Dollar strength may be over extended. Dollar action after the Fed announcement last week seemed to indicate that investors (speculators) were ready and willing to sell the greenback. Looking at the chart, one can see a potential peak in the Dollar Index earlier this month. And, our macro economic partner’s indicators are a short term extended…

201503.22
8
0

Hawk, Dove Or Chicken?

Janet Yellen threaded the needle this week with a masterfully worded statement following the FOMC meeting. The word “patient”, the removal of which had produced so much angst in markets recently, was excised to appease the hawks while the rest of the statement cooed dovishly to appease the stock market bulls. The Fed finally acknowledged…

201503.15
Off
0

US Equity Leadership is Fading

Research notes from Macro Research Board: While non-U.S. equity markets have massively underperformed the U.S. in recent years, especially in U.S. dollar terms, there are signs of a reversal in a number of key bourses. Our favored non-U.S. markets (EM commodity importers, the euro area and Japan) have recently edged higher in relative terms, even…