201602.07
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KISS

K.I.S.S. – Keep It Simple Stupid – An acronym used in the US military; a design principle; unnecessary complexity should be avoided. The acronym KISS is just another way of expressing Occam’s Razor or maybe Einstein’s admonition that everything should be as simple as possible but no simpler. That the simplest answer is usually the…

201601.23
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A Closer Look: Market Style

The S&P 500 Index ((IVV)) has had a rough first part of the year. Having failed at strong resistance at both moving averages, the index was essentially in a freefall on its way down to the 1800 level. After a drop of over 250 points, it managed to hold that level and now looks likely to bounce…

201601.23 0

Is This A Bear Market?

Most people who have called themselves bears over the last couple of years had a pretty simple equation to justify their bearishness – High Present Valuations = Low Future Returns. And today’s valuations – the valuations of two years ago – were so high that future returns would be very low and probably, possibly, at…

201601.16
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A Closer Look: Market Cap

This past week, the S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index ((IVV)) tested and then broke strong support at the 50 and 200-day moving averages after a remarkable rebound from its crushing meltdown earlier this year. Look for a possible bounce here, as we tested resistance from the previous low set in August and the market is slightly oversold.  The…

201601.16
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Apocalypse Not Yet

Kurtz: I watched a snail crawl along the edge of a straight razor. That’s my dream; that’s my nightmare. Crawling, slithering, along the edge of a straight razor…and surviving. – From Apocalypse Now It doesn’t take much to awaken the bears on Wall Street. A couple of weeks of fairly routine stock market activity to…

201601.09
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A Closer Look: World Markets

Throughout October, the S&P 500 Index (IVV) rebounded remarkably from the lows made in late August, breaking above both moving averages and getting close to new all-time highs. After a volatile but stagnant final two months of the year, in which the market straddled the moving averages with no clear direction, the index once again broke down…

201601.09
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Bull VS Bear

The New Year has gotten off to a rocky start and I’m sure there are a number of market prognosticators out there wishing their trusty coin had come up heads rather than tails. That’s actually not fair. I’m sure a lot of thought went into those annual market outlook pieces. That they are no better…

201512.27
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Slim Pickings in 2015

Major Asset Classes with Positive Total Returns US Reits – 2.62% US Large Caps (SP500) – 2.2% Munis (3yr) – 1.16% Emerging Market Bonds – 1.08% US Bonds – 0.76% Cash – 0.02% Unfortunately, 2015 was not a great year for diversified portfolios. Kudos to those who owned Japan, Europe, US Large Cap Growth, Foreign…

201512.20 1

The Confidence Game Is Ending

Immediately after the Fed hiked interest rates last Wednesday – after sitting at 0% for 7 years – markets acted pretty much as one might expect. The Fed tightens monetary policy when the economy is strong so rising stock prices, rising interest rates and a strong dollar are all things that make sense in that…