Insights and Research

It’s Not Coming, More

At first, 2014 was supposed to be the year of recovery; no fooling this time. Then came winter, which was both “unexpected” and seriously stifled the modern conveyance systems of the largest global economy. After that, the temporary weather was to be no match for the mother-of-all bounces in the spring, as pent-up demand was .. read more

On July 23rd, 2014, posted in: Economy, Markets by

The Euro Gone Dead Too

With the introduction of the world’s first major negative interest rate, I believe it was fully expected that the euro would devalue. After all, it sounds very much like an act of debasement, intentional and heavy, that should move the currency “markets”, but that has not been the case. In fact, the euro appears as .. read more

Depth in Home Sales

Existing home sales re-attained the 5 million SAAR level again in June, but that remains well behind last year’s trajectory. In other words, the bounce in sales after the most recent trough is not nearly as robust as predicted when it was simply assumed that the housing market would just revert back to 2013’s trend. .. read more

Speculating On The Gold Supply

What follows here, in the interest of full disclosure, is nothing more than speculative conjecture on my part. This is due mostly to the opacity that dominates gold “markets” and trading oddities that follow from it. My thoughts here are based on gut instinct about recent observations, but that is about as much to solidify .. read more

It’s Not Coming

Entrenched narratives die extremely hard, with all due respect to John McClane’s [Bruce Willis] aging franchise, and I cannot remember something so cemented as the recovery idea this year. That is really saying something considering that each and every New Year’s Day after the trough of the Great Recession has brought out the same exact .. read more

A Closer Look: World Markets

Despite a somewhat volatile week, the  S&P 500 Index (IVV) barely came off of its all-time highs set in the beginning of July. The index has staggered in the last week as a result of the unforgivable Malaysia 17 incident and Russia’s perceived involvement, and with news of the ground invasion in Gaza by Israeli forces. Rocky .. read more

On July 20th, 2014, posted in: Weekly Update by

A Change In Policy?

The Committee recognizes that low interest rates may provide incentives for some investors to “reach for yield,” and those actions could increase vulnerabilities in the financial system to adverse events. While prices of real estate, equities, and corporate bonds have risen appreciably and valuation metrics have increased, they remain generally in line with historical norms. .. read more

Treasury Solicits QE Absolution

I have to say that I am more than a little amused by the “news” that the US Treasury Dept. is asking for comment from the primary dealers about the recent repo fails. As Bloomberg put it succinctly, “The Treasury also asked the dealers to explain the causes for an increase recently in “fails-to-deliver” in .. read more