201410.24
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Not A Lot of Bets On Stress Tests

We will find out Sunday if all the rumors are correct (and by how much) about a significant portion of European banks either failing or still with their “feet wet” after the usual comedy of the stress tests. You never really know with these types of weighty events, as there are all sorts of biases…

201410.24
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What Magnificent (For Some) Complications

In July 2014, just as the dollar was beginning to tighten with what seems like an overly sensitive trigger, the US Treasury Dept’s Office of Financial Research published a paper by Zoltan Pozsar that attempted to map out the financial system as it actually exists (hat tip to W Kraus for sending it to me)….

201410.24
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Real Estate Visibility Clouded by Sharp Revisions

The Census Bureau is seemingly out to prove the point that monthly variations in home sales data are really meaningless. Downward revisions after last month’s curious “surge” in new home sales place the trend right back in the rut it has exhibited for a year and a half now. Given that single family home construction…

201410.23
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Implications of Funding Market Asymmetry

While this morning’s post was more about longer-term implications of “dollar” changes, there are a couple of observations pertinent to the shorter-term that I think need consideration too. For whatever reason, whether it was, like September 4, 2013, an anticipation of countertrend “dovishness” on the part of the FOMC, the eurodollar market gained a sudden…

201410.23
3
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More Dollar Clarity

There would be a lot more use for the Treasury Dept’s TIC flows and holdings data if it was released closer to real time, but even with that evident staleness about it I think there is a lot of use in how it frames what we see in the dollar and currencies (thus spilling over…

201410.22
2
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Thomistic Metaphysics Very Fittingly Visits Real Wages

In some sense when trying to analyze the difference between an ill-suited measure and that same ill-suited measure seasonally adjusted amounts to Isaac D’Israeli’s critique of Thomistic tendencies toward using otherwise useful brainpower for pointless ends (thus, how many angels can dance on the point of a needle – not the head of a pin…

201410.22
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Textbook Demolition

The chatter that continues over Japan’s spiral into (further) economic impoverishment is simply astounding since it is taken as “expert” by the media. A credentialed economist will look at some numbers and simply take them as meaningful, especially if they are the “right” sign in the “right” direction. This is either wholly obtuse or intentionally…

201410.21
2
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China’s Malaise Is Born In The USA

First, the China Manufacturing “Flash” PMI had “markets” exhaling relief since an increase from 50.2 to 50.5 meant, Manufacturing Rebound Relieves Growth Concerns. A week later, however, that PMI increase disappeared as the final PMI for September came in at an even 50.2 instead – which altered the commentary from “rising” manufacturing to “thankfully” steady…

201410.21
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Significant Stagnation in Surveys

To add another point to my earlier post on price changes and spending/revenue patterns, Gallup’s various economic polls show what I think are exactly the same problems. In the daily spending poll, the amount of self-reported spending has not really grown going all the way back to February 2013. Twenty months of largely stagnation is…

201410.21
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Less Than Burgers

With all of the credit market fireworks that leaked into stocks, the pace of economic reassurance from “authorities” has been rather steady and a bit more emphatic. Despite the attempts at managing perceptions, there has been very little actual success in persuading. In many ways this is like the unfolding ebola drama in that there…

201410.20
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Back to Sleep

The reason I have been characterizing the ECB’s actions since this summer as “desperate” is entirely due to the fact they are simply redoing things and expecting everyone to simply assume they are acting anew. That may not be entirely the case with their obsession with Eonia (more on that below), but narrowing the corridor…

201410.20
1
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Maybe IBM Should’ve Bought The Whole ‘Cloud’ Rather Than Itself

IBM blames the cloud for its dismal results, but the fact is that IBM should own the cloud outright (figuratively, of course). If the business has changed so much in the past few years due to customer shifting, then why wasn’t IBM leading that process? Why are they now actually admitting what amounts to a…