How Many Rate Cuts?
At the beginning of the year, the market was pricing in fairly high odds of as many as 5 interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, the first one coming in March. Now, just [...]
Market Pulse: Skeptically Optimistic
The 10-year Treasury Note yield fell 13 basis points last week, a move that would not normally rate any mention whatsoever, but the path of that small decline does. From Monday to Thursday, the yield [...]
Market Morsels: Corporate Bond Issuance
Corporate bond issuance in January is at $176 billion with a few days to go. That's an all-time record for January and higher than any month last year. Last year's issuance was up 5.5% over [...]
Weekly Market Pulse: Surprises
We got the latest report on economic growth last week and it surprised most everyone. Real GDP expanded by an annualized 3.3% in the fourth quarter, well above the consensus estimate of 2%. Nominal GDP [...]
Market Morsels: Mortgage Spread
The spread between the 10 year and the 30 year mortgage is starting to normalize. If this continues and mortgage rates keep coming down, housing could turn soon and start adding to GDP:
Market Morsels: Crude Oil
Crude oil futures have returned to backwardation after a couple of months of contango. Near-term demand improved relative to supply. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html#venue=globex The crude oil chart looks like it is setting up for a rally:
Weekly Market Pulse: Is The Recession Finally Here?
The financial commentariat first started to worry about recession in April of 2022 when the spread between the 10-year Treasury rate and the 2-year Treasury rate turned negative - the yield curve inverted. It subsequently [...]
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