Retail Sales Still In The Green
It would be easier if we could just know the right amount of oil futures backwardation. The literal answer for the question of what’s the correct level is the curve’s shape at any given moment [...]
A Derivatives View On Q1 That Might Help Explain Q2 (and after)
Morgan Stanley is bit more complicated as a derivatives dealer than the Big 4. Those other banks hold most of their books at their bank subsidiaries. In this case, the term bank actually means something, [...]
A Little More Inversion To Ignore
Inflation hysteria was primarily focused on the bond market. While it had political elements attached, mainly the desperate attempt to discredit the basis for populist discord, mostly it was a bond bear thing. The economy [...]
Global Economy Still In The Green?
If we are in the red on global eurodollar money, it makes sense to ask the question where we are in terms of global economy. What I mean by that is in the context of [...]
COT Black: Futures Curve Twisting
There is an interesting, ongoing academic debate about what shape the crude oil futures curve “should” take. Quite naturally, it seems backwardation is the market baseline. Most people, I think, presume otherwise because of their [...]
It’s Taking Too Long, The Boom Didn’t Boom
At some point, the boom had to have boomed. We are moving into the past tense for all this now, inflation hysteria almost certainly tucked away into the economic ledger alongside four other false dawns. [...]
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