What Current Interest Rates Really Mean
On June 14, the 10-year German bund yield traded briefly below zero for the first time. It was an inauspicious record but one that defines the contradictions at the center of all this economic and [...]
The Full Measure of Slack
Near the start of her tenure, Janet Yellen in a speech given on April 16, 2014, at the Economic Club of New York declared monetary policy concerned with three big factors. The first was inflation [...]
Waiting For Earnings To Correct? Q1 And Forward EPS Update
EPS estimates are always in the practice of falling over time, so that natural process should be considered when comparing across the movement of the calendar. That said, however, earnings continue to defy projections of [...]
Re-investigating The Simple Assumptions
In February 1999, the Bank of Japan announced that its call money rate would be zero “until deflationary concerns subside.” Other than a temporary shift in 2001 and 2006, deflationary concerns remain. How effective was [...]
Always More
For decades the slander against Herbert Hoover went unchallenged. He was branded a “do nothing” in the 1932 campaign, a charge which looks sillier the more time passes. The proper slander of Hoover is that [...]
Why QE Will Never Work
Recently Cumberland Advisors published a report titled, "LCR: Is The Fed's Balance Sheet Too Small?". While we have the greatest respect for David Kotok and his firm, we disagree with this analysis. Jeff Snider's response [...]
Earnings Update: Begin With The End In Mind
“Begin With the End in Mind” Stephen R. Covey, Author Although, Stephen Covey was not referring to investments when he assigned this declaration as Habit #2 in his book, “The 7 Habits of Highly [...]
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