Global Asset Allocation Update
I am raising the budget for risk assets this month. For the moderate risk portfolio, I am raising the risk allocation to 45%, reducing the bond allocation to 50% and adding a 5% cash position. [...]
The ‘Costs’ Of Beyond The Cycle
We have to acknowledge that economic statistics are imperfect even under the best conditions. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to measure comparative circumstances where conditions are less than ideal or conventional. In terms [...]
(Un)Welcome Back ‘Dollar’
On June 3, the May payroll report was released shocking convention by its “unexpected” weakness. It was, and so far remains, the worst headline number since 2009. Because the suggestion of a far weaker labor [...]
Predictably, China Trade Falls Back In Line
The inconsistency or unevenness of the economic data is a huge part of the problem. The world wants to move in nice, clean straight lines and nowhere is that more of an assumption than economics. [...]
The Hope Trade Returns Though Severely Stunted As It Should Be
All it takes are the words “record high” and all economic or financial sins are forgiven and forgotten. The financial media cannot contain themselves whenever they get the chance to use the term, adding qualifications [...]
Wholesale Zombie
Wholesale inventories have ground to a halt, but since wholesale sales have also the inventory imbalance only continues midway already through its second year. Excluding petroleum, the wholesale inventory to sales ratio surged upward starting [...]
Two Times Was Convincing; Five, Maybe Six Times Cannot Be Coincidence
People are often mistaken for thinking the eurodollar is somehow related to the euro, but that is in many ways quite understandable. In reality, the eurodollar system is shorthand for a global, offshore monetary regime [...]
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