Woe To Seasonality
So much of the basis for monetary policy was put in place in the 1960’s study of the 1930’s. It has become commonplace simply to assume 21st century tactics as being directly lifted from the [...]
Maybe Not As Much Difference Between LMCI and Jobs Report
Even with the huge turnaround in the Establishment Survey’s headline number in June, the Fed’s alternate factor model could not manage a positive number. It was an improvement over May (revised), but nonetheless the sixth [...]
Magic Number Bias
As an outsider, it is difficult to gain the pulse of Japanese politics. Viewing it all only from an economic or financial perspective is immediately too narrow. There is far more than just Abenomics at [...]
A Closer Look: Market Cap
This past week, the S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index ((IVV)) once again tested resistance at the 2100-2120 level, before finally blowing through to set new all-time highs for the market. It's been a remarkable rebound from [...]
Only Spreading Monetary ‘Tightness’
As an apparent consequence of post-Brexit uncertainty, the effective federal funds (EFF) rate moved up from 38 bps in “yield” to 40 bps, and then even 41 bps on June 27. That rather tame reaction [...]
Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Confusion Reigns
Economic Reports Scorecard The response to the much better than expected employment report today is quite interesting although not in a good way. Stocks will surely get most of the attention, assuming they continue to [...]
Direct Line of Funding Warnings Show Up In Corporate Credit, Particularly IG
One of the consequences of last year’s junk bond blowup was, unsurprisingly, a dramatic decline in high yield gross issuance. The numbers were pretty stark. According to SIFMA, high yield gross issuance in Q1 was [...]
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