Durable Goods Add To The Idea of Depression (Small ‘d’)
There wasn’t anything new or surprising in the advance durable goods report. Shipments (ex transportation) were flat and orders were up 1% year-over-year (NSA). Capital goods (non-defense, ex aircraft) shipments fell 3.4%, the tenth straight [...]
Back To Our Regularly Scheduled Programming (UPDATED)
It was a nice diversion while it lasted, I suppose. From the moment of the unfortunate murder of the British MP, funding markets, in particular, had been furiously “selling dollars” to get back some of [...]
Secular Stagnation Is Eurodollar Stagnation
Last week, the St. Louis Fed published an article based on a speech that Dr. Larry Summers gave to the Homer Jones Memorial Lecture series back in April. The article included the full text of [...]
What Current Interest Rates Really Mean
On June 14, the 10-year German bund yield traded briefly below zero for the first time. It was an inauspicious record but one that defines the contradictions at the center of all this economic and [...]
The Full Measure of Slack
Near the start of her tenure, Janet Yellen in a speech given on April 16, 2014, at the Economic Club of New York declared monetary policy concerned with three big factors. The first was inflation [...]
Waiting For Earnings To Correct? Q1 And Forward EPS Update
EPS estimates are always in the practice of falling over time, so that natural process should be considered when comparing across the movement of the calendar. That said, however, earnings continue to defy projections of [...]
Re-investigating The Simple Assumptions
In February 1999, the Bank of Japan announced that its call money rate would be zero “until deflationary concerns subside.” Other than a temporary shift in 2001 and 2006, deflationary concerns remain. How effective was [...]
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