It wasn’t supposed to be the case that China would steal all the attention from Japan. We are only a few days away from QQE’s second anniversary and all expectations were purposely set to be a full-blown revival by now. The dedication and skill with which the Japanese economy was handled was meant to conclusively demonstrate with no debate that [...]
Despite all evidence to the contrary, an imbalanced ledger of data that grows more imbalanced by the month, commentary continues to describe QE as pro-growth stimulus. As usual, the purest form of rebuke to that sentiment can be found in Japan where QQE has performed a global service just not in the way its theorists and practitioners had envisioned. The [...]
In commentary about Shinzo Abe’s overwhelming re-election last week, there was a growing sense of divergence between rhetoric and support. Clearly, Abe’s administration had the nearly full support of the Japanese people, a fact due more than anything to the manner in which “economics” is not just reported but understood. In describing the looming track of a worse recession from [...]
I suppose this was not really a surprise given how the Japanese people seem to have simply accepted their fate, economically speaking, so the resounding re-election of Abe’s party removes any further sympathy from a people dooming themselves to this sustained, toxic course. The election itself was not all about the economy in immediate consideration as there were several other [...]
The word “unexpectedly” has made its appearance in Japan with the latest quarterly GDP release. Economists had forecast between +2.2% and +2.5%, so -1.6% counts for an “outlier” to commentary. This result, following a quarter where GDP already fell 7.3%, is nothing short of atrocious and leaves no doubt the disastrous shape to which Japan has befallen. As I said [...]
In reviewing commentary about all the posturing in Japan preparing for what looks like, to me, an end of the recovery idea, there was one very alarming passage that I think may be important (and not just widely ridiculous) that ties together failure and the possible future course: Abe said yesterday he hadn’t decided whether to proceed with any snap [...]
In what can only be an intentional trial balloon, the Abe government in Japan is making noise about delaying the next scheduled tax increase. Considered to be one of the important “arrows” in Abenomics, this is an especially stark admission that orthodox economics has not (yet again) delivered on its promise. When QQE was started in April 2013, there were [...]
The precursor event of every hyperinflationary episode is not as conventional wisdom currently holds. Certainly there are conditions that are present in each and every one, including desperate fiscal imbalances that ultimately become expressed in growing monetarism, but the true cause that turns those troubling circumstances to total and complete wipeout and disaster is tunnel vision. That was what happened [...]
When QQE was first officially introduced, I produced what I thought would be a “template” for the trajectory of the Japanese economy. On a strictly reasoned basis, without any forward calculations or regressions, the Japanese, and Bank of Japan in particular, were making a choice with what I thought was very little chance of ultimate success. You can understand, somewhat, [...]
Japan is undoubtedly now quite the mess, but that is starting to spill-over into general view in what has to be a most unwelcome and even embarrassing occurrence for its practitioners. The problem, however, is much deeper now than just an economy seemingly forever doomed to the recesses of some kind of economic hell. For a quadrillion yen, the Bank [...]
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