Term Bubble Premiums

Since nobody can seem to agree on what is an asset bubble, it’s that much more difficult to try and estimate its end. A bubble stops being a bubble only when the people participating decide to question the rationalizations they’ve invented to keep them complacently inside of it. It’s most often just that vague sense…


The Changing Tides

This past weekend saw many occasions around the world mark the 200th anniversary of the birth of Karl Marx. Rather than lament the rise of one of the most destructive influences of the modern world, most if not all were quite celebratory. The much-loved philosopher, especially in academic circles, has for his followers given them…


Making (of) A Statement

I am decidedly in favor of going back to the way it was twenty-five years ago. These constant communications from the Federal Reserve, designed to increase transparency, have accomplished the opposite. Alan Greenspan was made famous for first being an accidental genius (no, it wasn’t massive offshore monetary growth that made the Great “Moderation”, it…


Inflation Hysteria(s)

On May 16, 2000, the FOMC gathered around in Washington to debate taking more extreme measures. For nearly a year, Greenspan’s Federal Reserve had been “raising rates” in the now-familiar pattern. Adjusting their target for interest on federal funds, the Committee had by then increased it at all of the five previous policy meetings, each…


Still None, And Even More Reasons To Expect None

The parallels between the last few years and those at the end of the 1990’s are striking. There was a few years ago the monetary intrusion of the “rising dollar” which at its worst seriously depressed the global economy. Oil prices crashed, as did several key currencies, and deflationary pressures that often accompany a significant…


Is It Ever Different This Time?

As my colleague Joe Calhoun likes to point out, nothing is new, everything has happened before. We like to think that’s not the case, as the saying goes every generation thinks it has invented sex. What changes is the form, the format largely remains the same. Human beings in 2018 are the same as they…


(Chicken) Hawkish

You have to go back four years for some honesty. The FOMC in January 2014 could be more forthright simply because the committee’s members believed they wouldn’t ever have to explain themselves. They voted to taper QE at the end of 2013 with the expectation that the economy would perform as their econometric models laid…

201801.23 3

What If The Boom Doesn’t Boom?

As most people know, the Kansas City Fed has been holding its annual symposium in Jackson, WY, for a very long time. Supposedly a draw for Paul Volcker’s fly fishing hobby when he was Chairman, the conference came to include heavyweights on a regular basis. Most of them, especially those in the early years, however,…


Central Bank Transparency, Or Doing Deliberate Dollar Deals With The Devil

The advent of open and transparent central banks is a relatively new one. For most of their history, these quasi-government institutions operated in secret and they liked it that way. As late as October 1993, for example, Alan Greenspan was testifying before Congress intentionally trying to cloud the issue as to whether verbatim transcripts of…

201801.18 2

Third Time’s A Charm?

I find the article laughable. I should point out I am a millennial male though, so I would think that. We invest in bitcoin because we are BROKE, and you cannot earn any significant amount by working. And honestly, this entire market proves what we all suspected. Working is for suckers, it will not get…