Nvidia reported earnings last week and they were, to be sober about it, incredible. Total revenue rose to $22.1 billion for the quarter, up 22% from last quarter and 265% year-over-year. Data center revenue, which is what investors really ought to be watching with this company, was up 27% from last quarter and a whopping 409% year-over-year. Gross margins run [...]
This whole “inflation” scenario isn’t really that difficult to piece together, effect from cause. Sure, Jay Powell’s trying to nuke it by hiking the federal funds rate, but no one really uses fed funds and the problem isn’t the unsecured cost of borrowing bank reserves (not money) that are literally overflowing. For one, the FOMC’s efforts aren’t going to get [...]
When it gets cold outside and the pandemic throws another variant spread into the mix, Americans have proved they will come together…in virtual fashion to go shopping for fashions and more on Amazon. For the second straight post-Christmas winter, retail sales recorded by nonstore retailers ended up being far, far better than expected. According to the Census Bureau’s latest report [...]
There were some wild, unprecedented - frankly stunning - swings in some very large, high-profile stocks last week. The press concentrated on Meta, nee Facebook, and Amazon as the yin and yang, the negative and positive, of the market. Facebook (how long before Zuckerberg abandons Meta? I give it a year) managed to lose a quarter of a trillion dollars [...]
A couple of weeks ago the 10-year Treasury note yield rose 16 basis points in the course of 5 trading days. That move was driven by near-term inflation fears as I discussed last week. Long-term inflation expectations were and are well behaved. I wrote nearly 2000 words last week about that change in inflation expectations and I'm so glad you [...]
According to the Census Bureau, auto sales in the US may be on the upswing. Rising 6.8% year-over-year in August, it was the highest rate in nearly three years for retail sales of automobiles. This follows an upward revised 6.3% increase during July, the best back-to-back months in the beleaguered sector since the end of 2016. Are auto sales experiencing [...]
The rules of interpretation that apply to the payroll reports also apply to other data series like retail sales. The monthly changes tend to be noisy. Even during the best of times there might be a month way off trend. On the other end, during the worst of times there will be the stray good month. What matters is the [...]
Amazon made a huge splash when it announced it was raising wages. On the surface, it appeared to confirm all those stories about a massive, nationwide labor shortage. In addition, it positioned Amazon in the “fight for fifteen”, a political topic which raises more questions than provides answers. It was the rare occasion where populists on both sides applauded the [...]
The risk budget this month shifts slightly as we add cash to the portfolio. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is unchanged at 50%, risk assets are reduced to 45% and cash is raised to 5%. The changes this month are modest and may prove temporary but I felt a move to reduce risk was prudent given [...]
We often have discussions in the office that consist primarily of asking questions. Sometimes they are questions we don't think people are asking enough, sometimes questions we are sick of hearing and most often questions which we can't answer. Not questions that only we can't answer but rather ones that no one can answer based on real facts. I find [...]
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