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Weekly Market Pulse – February 15, 2021

By |2021-02-15T20:10:42-05:00February 15th, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

This is a holiday-shortened week in the US but there is some important data on tap. Retail sales are expected to show a month-to-month rise for the first time since September. Year-over-year numbers remain pretty subdued and likely will until life returns to something resembling normal. Producer prices will likely rise but inflation continues its benign ways. It is likely [...]

Redistributing A Shrinking Pie Is Nothing Like A Flood; Because There Was No Flood

By |2020-11-18T18:11:07-05:00November 18th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the past couple months, the foreign official sector has been able to go back to buying (net) US Treasuries again. Not a lot, but it’s a change from the prior period when overseas central banks and governments would dependably dump tens of billions each month. Contrary to convention, this kind of buying corresponds to rising rates, the reflationary stuff. [...]

Negative TIC Is A Rare Level of Negative

By |2019-03-18T18:07:02-04:00March 18th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Even on a six-month cumulative basis, it is rare to find a negative number. These are reserved for the big ones, the market-shaking events that either perform an inflection or confirm one as it reaches pretty hard depths. The world being the way that it is, you just don’t see the whole forced into outright selling (on net) US$ assets. [...]

The Real Reason Why Stop/Go Is Back To Stop Again

By |2019-03-05T18:31:57-05:00March 5th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

These things have typically started in global trade. This makes sense given what we are dealing with are intermittent problems in global money. Quite simply, you can’t trade if you can’t get any. Therefore, the more acute the dollar shortage the more disruptive to the global merchandise economy. The one exception to this pattern was the first. Euro$ #1 registered [...]

Finally Some Real Data…For November

By |2019-02-01T15:49:49-05:00February 1st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The payroll report wasn’t actually the first. The Treasury Department filed its Treasury International Capital (TIC) update yesterday, about two weeks late due to the federal government shutdown. However, since nobody follows it and the figures relate to a lot that’s beyond the US economy it doesn’t count in the mainstream view. That’s a shame because TIC will tell you [...]

It’s Hard Being A Bear

By |2016-03-23T14:13:35-04:00March 23rd, 2016|Alhambra Research, Markets, Stocks|

Global stock markets, especially in the US, have made a furious comeback from the lousy start of the year. At its worst level the S&P 500 was down 11% year to date and 15% from its peak late last spring. At that nadir the market was trading at roughly the same level as November of 2013, over two years of [...]

Weakness in the Global Economy; Japan Edition

By |2016-03-17T16:55:38-04:00March 17th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Setting aside all other considerations and doubts about QQE, there was one factor that was supposed to be unassailable. That was the yen. QQE as a “money printing” operation was understood to act heavily on the exchange value of the Japanese currency so that it would drastically alter the competitive pricing of Japanese goods in Japan’s favor. From that point, [...]

Potemkin on the Pacific

By |2015-04-22T15:01:13-04:00April 22nd, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the first time since June 2012 Japan has attained a trade surplus. It is, however, premature to interpret that as an end to the impoverishment the island has undertaken these past three years, the last two under QQE. There are various reasons for the end of the negative trade imbalance, but the most significant surround the Chinese New Year. [...]

Macro Themes and Research Highlights

By |2015-02-15T19:31:26-05:00February 15th, 2015|Economy, Markets|

The US currency is strengthening in conjunction with the a strengthening US economy (proxied here by employment growth and surveys of businesses on hiring intentions and growth prospects). The last time we had this environment was in the 90's. The combination of increased spending power accompanied by job growth could result in an empowered US consumer. We have seen personal consumption [...]

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