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asian flu

More (Badly Needed) Curve Comparisons

By |2019-11-20T12:43:24-05:00November 20th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Even though it was a stunning turn of events, the move was widely celebrated. The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, the FOMC, hadn’t been scheduled to meet until the end of that month. And yet, Alan Greenspan didn’t want to wait. The “maestro”, still at the height of his reputation, was being pressured to live up to it. The Fed [...]

Durable Goods And 1998

By |2019-05-24T11:58:26-04:00May 24th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We have arrived at revisions season once again. It’s that time of year when many if not most (I don’t actually keep track) of economic accounts undergo heightened scrutiny. More data is collected from more comprehensive surveys using far larger samples. These are compared to the existing high frequency panels and changes are made as necessary. Sometimes these are substantial, [...]

The Chicago Way Isn’t Even Partway And It’s Still Not Good For Powell, US Economy

By |2019-05-20T16:37:51-04:00May 20th, 2019|Markets|

In March 1999, Economists James Stock of Harvard and Mark Watson of Princeton published a paper in the Journal of Monetary Economics seeking answers for an inflation problem. For many years, it had been accepted that the unemployment rate was the only measure of economic activity necessary to infer inflation. The implications were enormous, especially in the age of interest [...]

Curves Rhyme, Too

By |2019-05-13T18:59:59-04:00May 13th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

People have started to look back fondly upon the Asian flu. It was as global disaster, a dollar shortage which spread all across mostly Asia but not exclusively. The reason why it is talked about positively nowadays is LTCM and rate cuts. Popular myth has it that Greenspan’s Fed properly handled any economic fallout due to the former by enacting [...]

Inflation Falls Again, Dot-com-like

By |2019-02-13T16:37:20-05:00February 13th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

US inflation in January 2019 was, according to the CPI, the lowest in years. At just 1.55% year-over-year, the index hadn’t suggested this level since September 2016 right at the outset of what would become Reflation #3. Having hyped expectations over that interim, US policymakers now have to face the repercussions of unwinding the hysteria. Live by oil, now die [...]

COT Blue: Biggest Warning Yet

By |2018-12-19T11:38:49-05:00December 19th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The problem, or one of them anyway, with so many glaring market warnings is that it becomes difficult to keep up with all of them. You tend to focus on those right in front of you, the more immediate and visible. Oil is everything for reflation, and therefore its untimely end, so naturally the WTI curve gets all the unlovable [...]

Brazil Money Math

By |2018-09-19T12:41:14-04:00September 19th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On June 10, 2013, Brazil’s central bank announced an allotment of 40,000 currency swap contracts at auction. This was the second operation carried out in short order that month, following weakness in the real, Brazil’s currency (BRL), against the dollar. In order to forestall any further declines, central bank intervention has long been a frontline tool in EM arsenals. But [...]

BOND ROUT!!!! (Now With Additional Exclamations)

By |2018-03-12T17:50:13-04:00March 12th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Ten years ago today, one of Carlyle Group’s mortgage funds, Carlyle Capital Corp (CCC), was seized by creditors. Precipitated by dwindling liquidity, the fund’s effective insolvency would amplify those global “dollar” pressures and lead to Bear Stearns’ untimely demise mere days later. The fund’s corporate parent issued a statement on March 6, 2008, that read: The last few days have [...]

Still No Up

By |2017-08-15T12:03:03-04:00August 15th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Asian flu of the late 1990’s might have been more accurately described as the Asian dollar flu. It was the first major global test of the mature eurodollar system, and it was a severe disruption in the global economy. It doesn’t register as much here in the United States because of the dot-com bubble and the popular imagination about [...]

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