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asset allocation

10 Year Expected Returns and the Taylor Rule

By |2015-05-17T11:24:11-04:00May 17th, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Stocks|

After 3 decades of disinflation and 15 years of very aggressive monetary policy, asset prices are high. Returns are expected to be below average for the next decade. Given the hyper-aggressive monetary policy of the last 6 years, the historically low yields on bonds means multi-asset class portfolios will be hampered by low returns on fixed income.   Will the [...]

Monitoring Markets

By |2015-05-03T14:19:09-04:00May 3rd, 2015|Bonds, Markets, Stocks|

  A look at relative value for the 2 major asset classes. Historic valuation measures indicate more risk currently in bonds than stocks. Momentum favors equities over bonds. The macro economic backdrop is likely to be more favorable for equities than bonds. The macro economic backdrop suggests that one should look for yield by taking on more credit risk as opposed to [...]

Investment Themes and Asset Allocation

By |2015-02-08T00:38:59-05:00February 8th, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

Here is a summary of this week's research from our strategic partner MRB. Allocation:   Trades to consider: "Short global luxury stocks versus multiline retailers." "Short 10-year U.S. Treasuries outright." As always, please feel free to contact me with any questions or concerns. Find out about your personal risk profile and working with Alhambra Click here to sign up for our free [...]

Who’s The Sucker?

By |2014-03-23T14:13:29-04:00March 23rd, 2014|Markets, Stocks|

Indeed, if you aren’t certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don’t belong in the game.  As they say in poker, “If you’ve been in the game 30 minutes and you don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.” I was sitting at my desk early last week listening to CNBC [...]

Subtle Shifts

By |2014-03-09T18:20:47-04:00March 9th, 2014|Commodities, Currencies|

While most everyone in the investment world has been focused like a laser beam on the amazing US stock market, some subtle shifts are happening that could have major implications for investors. These shifts are not large yet but they are significant if they are the beginning of a trend. For the last couple of years the investment landscape has [...]

Why I Worry So Much, Part 2

By |2014-01-20T16:09:28-05:00January 20th, 2014|Markets, Stocks|

In part 1 last week, I reviewed the two most important indicators of future economic growth - workforce growth and productivity growth. Both of these metrics are trending negatively with the workforce shrinking and productivity growing at rates less than 1/3 of what we experienced in the late 1990s. It is my view that changing these trends will require major [...]

Weekly Economic & Market Review

By |2012-04-29T17:59:21-04:00April 29th, 2012|Economy|

Targeted, timely and temporary. That was the clarion call of the Keynesians during the debate over the stimulus plan enacted at the beginning of President Obama's current term. Stimulus was reckoned to be most effective when these three principals were embraced. We all know now that timely wasn't much of a consideration in the structure of the stimulus and even [...]

Weekly Economic & Market Review

By |2012-04-02T16:08:46-04:00April 1st, 2012|Economy, Markets|

Well, the first quarter is in the books and what a quarter it was for US stocks. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both rose 12%, the NASDAQ almost 19% while the Dow lagged the field, up a mere 8%. As for us, while our stock portfolio lagged the S&P 500 slightly for the quarter, our outperformance over the longer [...]

The Alhambra View

By |2012-01-31T23:21:23-05:00January 29th, 2012|Markets|

I have had the pleasure of working with my new colleague Patrick Manning helping him reformulate our strategic (passive) portfolios for future clients.  The exchange of ideas with a 40 year Wall Street veteran has been extremely satisfying.  Pat has shared many insights picked up over the years and I have been able to relate to him many of the [...]

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