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bank of canada

Canada Signals Japan For Bond Yields

By |2019-04-24T17:45:02-04:00April 24th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Back in October, late October specifically, the Bank of Canada removed the word “gradual” from its policy statement. Inflation, staff Economists projected, was moving up as was the Canadian economy. It was finally time to become more aggressive. Freed from that one word, BoC officials could opt for a “rate hike” at every meeting. It was widely expected in December [...]

Expecting What’s Unexpected In Canada

By |2019-03-01T17:20:32-05:00March 1st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is much more chicken to each hawk than any of the birds would care to admit. What I mean by that is fairly straightforward, or it should be. Alan Greenspan was resolute. Right or wrong (the latter, trust the curves), after taking federal funds down to 1% officials pushed the rate right back up to 5.25% without pause. At [...]

Canada’s Fallacy Contribution

By |2019-01-23T18:19:03-05:00January 23rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If there is one small silver lining from 2018’s economic performance, it is that Milton Friedman’s interest rate fallacy is being robustly proven yet again. Many Economists will have you believe that low interest rates, short or long, are stimulus. This is a huge mistake. Here’s what Friedman said in December 1997: As the economy revives, however, interest rates would [...]

Policy Pause(s), Canada Looks To Be First

By |2018-12-05T16:36:11-05:00December 5th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The first central banker to blink wasn’t Jay Powell it was Stephen Poloz. The Bank of Canada has been steadily raising its policy rate like the Fed, or had been. It was widely expected that Canada’s central bank would skip this last meeting but there was no doubt about another 25 bps increase next month. Instead, things are a little [...]

Canada Trade, Plain and Simple

By |2018-10-23T12:25:36-04:00October 23rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight rate steady at its last meeting in early September. Like the Federal Reserve, Canada’s central bank has been “tightening.” The policy lever had been lifted four times starting in July 2017. It is expected that when monetary officials meet in Ottawa tomorrow they will vote for a fifth. In recent weeks, though, [...]

‘Mispriced’ Bonds Are Everywhere

By |2018-08-30T16:27:35-04:00August 30th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The US yield curve isn’t the only one on the precipice. There are any number of them that are getting attention for all the wrong reasons. At least those rationalizations provided by mainstream Economists and the central bankers they parrot. As noted yesterday, the UST 2s10s is now the most requested data out of FRED. It’s not just that the [...]

Why Not Zero?

By |2017-08-11T12:51:48-04:00August 11th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the early throes of economic devastation in 1931, Sweden found itself particularly vulnerable to any number of destabilizing factors. The global economy had been hit by depression, and the Great Contraction was bearing down on the Swedish monetary system. The krona had always been linked to the British pound, so that when the Bank of England removed gold convertibility [...]

Economists’ Canada Problem

By |2015-12-01T11:29:15-05:00December 1st, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Despite everything that happened in July and August throughout the financial world, there remained a tendency to simply dismiss it as anomalous. That was curious in and of itself, but that the global liquidations then were not isolated but rather the latest in a continuing string of “odd” events strains such determined dimness. We have arrived at a point in [...]

The ‘Dollar’s’ Grand Masterpiece Almost In Full View

By |2015-07-15T11:49:08-04:00July 15th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When US retail sales jumped in May on seasonal adjustments alone, economists and mainstream commentary lost all composure as they were certain that meant the “slump” was over and the dominant narrative would continue. The same occurred in Europe over a slight pickup in overall lending, not even in the household or business sectors, which was proclaimed as nothing but [...]

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