The wholesale sales and inventory figures were significantly revised this month going back more than a decade. The largest revisions were evident after 2007, which changes slightly the depth of the Great Recession and the “briskness” of the stunted recovery thereafter. Though both sales and inventory figures are much higher than previously believed (until they get revised again), the economic [...]
To add depth to the consumer credit version of consumer inclinations in 2015, Gallup’s estimates of daily spending in March came in at $86. That was only $4 greater than February’s $82 which hadn’t rebounded at all from January. In other words, there is “something” wrong with consumers so far in 2015, even as compared to prior years of lethargy. [...]
Consumer credit is somewhat useful as a gauge for actual consumer behavior in actual activity, as opposed to consumer sentiment surveys which tend to follow stock prices (and be dominated by the upper incomes) and the theory on the “wealth effect.” In terms of the current “cycle”, or supercycle as it may be, sentiment and debt could not be further [...]
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