bernanke

The Question Is Not A Difficult One To Answer

By |2016-01-29T15:42:21-05:00January 29th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At what point do we accede back to logic and rational thought? The Bank of Japan is “forced”, not my word, to unleash negative nominal interest rates and that is taken as a positive for everyone everywhere. Such a move is, without question, an open admission that QQE failed and failed spectacularly (since it was even expanded not really that [...]

Business Cycles, Bubbles and Changing Valuations

By |2015-03-13T10:34:54-04:00March 13th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The function of recession is not just some negative numbers that appear from seemingly nowhere, though that is how convention sees it of “unforeseeable” trends and “shocks. It may take the NBER years in some cases to declare, officially, a cycle peak but that doesn’t mean there aren’t warning signs much closer to the event. Among them is, again, not [...]

The Depressive Tale of Nominal Yields

By |2014-09-08T17:36:07-04:00September 8th, 2014|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It is easy to get carried away with modern finance, diving into the immense flourishing of finance that has taken place. Conceptions have become far more complex, sometimes unnecessarily so, leading to impairments in distinguishing forest and trees. In credit markets, we focus narrowly on spreads and curves because that is where the “action” seemingly takes place. That leaves observation [...]

Possessing the Economic Landscape

By |2014-09-08T12:05:31-04:00September 8th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

To go alongside the “unexpected” turn in payrolls Friday, the National Retail Federation issued a statement that highlighted a somewhat contradictory assessment of the US economic picture. They had an easy time stating the facts, or at least what was estimated of US jobs in the retail industry: NRF calculated retail industry (excluding autos and gasoline) employment declined by 17,700 [...]

The Jackson Hole Spin

By |2014-08-18T15:26:28-04:00August 18th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As is usual at this time of year, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board and FOMC will gain inordinate attention due to the upcoming Jackson Hole assembly. Ben Bernanke in his stint made use of the PR to first introduce his ideas about coming intervention and manipulation. Janet Yellen may or may not do the same, but she will [...]

Cycling Backward?

By |2014-08-08T14:30:05-04:00August 8th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wholesales sales and inventories are still relatively better in June than earlier in the year, though the level of inventory looks nothing like what is being counted for GDP. Overall, the pace of sales continues to be relatively stuck in a low-growth track that shows little signs of being elevated. For an economy being determined marginally by inventory, supply chain [...]

Not Enough To Revise QE3 & 4 History

By |2014-07-30T16:32:30-04:00July 30th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One of the major benefits to rewriting history, and “moving” growth from 2011 and 2012 into 2013, is that Bernanke’s QE3 & 4 scorecard looks a hell of a lot better. Unfortunately, it still isn’t enough of an inventory change to show acceleration, but it is, supposedly, far less of a direct abomination.   Click here to sign up for our [...]

The Dustbin Of Post-Panic History: QE Finally Joins The ‘Stimulus’ Bill

By |2014-07-09T15:52:49-04:00July 9th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The FOMC policy statement confirms without much doubt that there has been a major shift in conditions and outlook. To reiterate in what cannot be overstated, the purpose of implementing QE was to create economic conditions that conformed to the historical understanding of economic growth. If not so much 1995, Bernanke’s FOMC wanted to return to at least 2005 and [...]

Bulls Should Beware ‘Improving Economy’ Only Ever Exists In Speeches

By |2014-05-19T16:12:39-04:00May 19th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Back in September 2012 at the press conference for Ben Bernanke’s announcement of QE, the Chairman was asked point blank by Pedro da Costa of Reuters about perceptions of it being a program that seemed more directed toward Wall Street than Main Street. The answer was the standard boiler plate assumptions that orthodox economists make in terms of aggregate demand. [...]

Turning Japanese; Credit Looks East

By |2014-05-07T17:06:28-04:00May 7th, 2014|Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In looking at policy expectations, I continue to believe the shift in the Fed is both dramatic and durable. On the one hand, QE without Bernanke is toast, as the growing consensus appears to be that the economy is running here and now at or above “potential” (explaining in an orthodox manner why the unemployment rate is falling so precipitously [...]

Go to Top