bill dudley

Good Reason To Fear The Futures

By |2018-07-06T17:41:50+00:00July 6th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The eurodollar futures curve has already turned on them. That’s why the sudden interest in things like federal funds futures. If it seemed yesterday with the release of the last meeting minutes that the FOMC members appear to be getting nervous, there is good reason. The eurodollar curve is already slightly inverted. Remember, these contracts [...]

Another Confesses The Impossible, We Might Not Have Known What Were Doing

By |2018-06-04T12:55:56+00:00June 4th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When you go around claiming that central bankers don’t know the first thing about money, people tend to think you are crazy. It’s not really their (people’s) fault. Not only have we been conditioned to believe in a technocracy of sorts, it is raw human nature to immediately suspect such a radically contrarian view. It [...]

Data Dependent: Interest Rates Have Nowhere To Go

By |2017-08-14T18:20:05+00:00August 14th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In October 2015, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Bill Dudley admitted that the US economy might be slowing. In the typically understated fashion befitting the usual clownshow, he merely was acknowledging what was by then pretty obvious to anyone outside the economics profession. Dudley was at that moment, however, undaunted. His eye was cast toward the [...]

Woe Unto The First Decade Of A New Century

By |2017-02-08T11:44:56+00:00February 8th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On February 8, 2007, exactly one decade ago today, shares of New Century Financial, a former darling of not just Wall Street but the mainstream, plunged 37% in panicky trading. The day before, February 7, New Century reported expectations for loan production for 2007 to be 20% below 2006 levels. But the real bombshell was [...]

Dr. StrangeYellen 2: The Belated Rationality of Post-Crisis Money

By |2016-12-30T17:24:06+00:00December 30th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In 2003, Nobel laureate Robert Lucas wrote admiringly in his Presidential address for the American Economic Association that the field of economics was itself a put-forward solution to the Great Depression. Such was the calamity that enormous intellectual effort was expanded so as to never repeat it. Though with that belated task there is also, [...]