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What Manufacturing Productivity Suggests About ‘Dollars’ And Stagnation

By |2017-07-25T16:42:35-04:00July 25th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In a report released last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) found that Multi-Factor Productivity rose in only 21 of the 86 categories of the manufacturing industry in 2015. Unlike labor productivity which is more easily calculated, Multi-Factor Productivity measures attempt to take account of all business inputs (including labor). Capitalism is by its nature the combination of all [...]

Forced Finally To A Binary Labor Interpretation

By |2017-06-06T16:12:17-04:00June 6th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

JOLTS figures for the month of April 2017, released today, highlight what is in the end likely to be a more positive outcome for them. It has very little to do with the economy itself, as what we are witnessing is the culmination of extreme positions that have been made and estimated going all the way back to 2014. At [...]

The Anti-Perfect Jobs Condition

By |2017-06-02T12:32:34-04:00June 2nd, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The irony of the unemployment rate for the Federal Reserve is that the lower it gets now the bigger the problem it is for officials. It has been up to this year their sole source of economic comfort. Throughout 2015, the Establishment Survey improperly contributed much the same sympathy, but even it no longer resides on the plus side of [...]

The Continuing Incompatible State

By |2017-05-04T19:01:15-04:00May 4th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As much as even the major labor market statistics have picked up on slowing, they wouldn’t have in the first quarter of this year presented enough of it to keep productivity positive. With a very low level of output, once again, calculated labor productivity was for the fourth time over the last six quarters negative. According to the BEA, total [...]

Payrolls Still Slowing Into A Third Year

By |2017-03-10T11:51:33-05:00March 10th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Today’s bland payroll report did little to suggest much of anything. All the various details were left pretty much where they were last month, and all the prior trends still standing. The headline Establishment Survey figure of 235k managed to bring the 6-month average up to 194k, almost exactly where it was in December but quite a bit less than [...]

Solutions Require Good Data

By |2017-02-07T17:52:16-05:00February 7th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There were no surprises in the updated JOLTS estimates for December 2016, just more of the same sideways. The level of Job Openings was 5.501 million (SA), practically unchanged from November’s 5.505 million. The BLS estimates that Job Openings have been stuck at around that level since April 2015. In terms of Hires, that series, too, was practically unchanged in [...]

Still Nowhere Near Full Employment

By |2017-02-02T18:40:06-05:00February 2nd, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In addition to all the myriad indications of a serious labor market slowdown last year, despite the fact that the unemployment rate has been 5% or less since September 2015, and in all likelihood was that again in January, there is no indication of any acceleration in wages or earnings. None. The labor market just is not as it is [...]

‘Our Employment Problem’

By |2017-02-02T18:14:59-05:00February 2nd, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Productivity in Q4 2016 was estimated to have been 1.29%, suggesting that last quarter was merely bad rather than unusually bad as it had been just before. Productivity during what was the near-recession in the three quarters including and after Q4 2015 was negative in all three. That would suggest, strongly, why labor market statistics have uniformly described a rather [...]

Labor Stats Are A Big Problem

By |2017-01-10T19:19:50-05:00January 10th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The updated estimates from the BLS for its JOLTS data largely confirm observations from other labor markets figures. The rate of Job Openings in November 2016 was slightly more than October, but still not appreciably different than what it has been over the past two years. The JOLTS survey indicated Job Openings first reached 5.5 million for the first time [...]

No Love From JOLTS

By |2016-11-09T19:19:26-05:00November 9th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The BLS reported that the rate of hiring in the US continues to be sluggish and sideways. Total hiring across the labor market was estimated to be 5.08 million (SA) in September, down from August and the second slowest rate this year. Since first surpassing 5 million back in September 2014, the overall pace of employer engagement has been largely [...]

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