bond market

It’s Taking Too Long, The Boom Didn’t Boom

By |2018-07-12T16:34:28+00:00July 12th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At some point, the boom had to have boomed. We are moving into the past tense for all this now, inflation hysteria almost certainly tucked away into the economic ledger alongside four other false dawns. Data is coming in for June 2018, meaning half of this year already recorded and analyzed. It’s not what it [...]

COT Blue: Reflation Doubts Accumulate

By |2018-07-11T11:34:13+00:00July 11th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I doubt there will be an official report created and published surrounding the events of May 29. Unlike those on October 15, 2014, which did trigger a Treasury Department alphabet-soup-of-partners response, it wasn’t crashy enough this time around. The UST market experienced a true panic more than three and a half years ago, though one [...]

What A Difference A Few Months Make, Highest Inflation in Six Years And Market Shrugs

By |2018-06-12T12:29:15+00:00June 12th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What a difference a few months make. Perhaps given all that has happened since January people have regained some badly needed perspective. The core of inflation hysteria was the belief the economy was about to take off which would exacerbate underlying price pressures. That would necessitate more aggressive Federal Reserve reaction, corroborated by an epic [...]

Hurricane Wholesale

By |2018-03-12T19:22:07+00:00March 12th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wholesale sales were up 10% year-over-year in January. But like every other economic account, the bulk of those gains were registered in the aftermath of Harvey and Irma. Seasonally-adjusted, wholesale sales predictably declined in January. Compared to other data points like imports, it’s literally the same pattern. Petroleum sales do account for a lot of [...]

Historical Precedence For How A Bond ‘Bubble’ Ends

By |2017-11-14T18:26:25+00:00November 14th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The UK government tried very hard to hold on. They had been able to raise $200 million from JP Morgan, a significant sum at that time under those circumstances. The British had also secured an almost equal amount from banks in France. The new National Government had produced a budget slashing spending by £70 million, [...]

You Aren’t Supposed To Reject Falsification

By |2017-10-30T13:38:30+00:00October 30th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why don’t economists understand bonds? The long answer involves several detours into parts of Economics that have nothing to do with interest rates or even money. More so these places are dominated by discussions of stochastic calculus and partial differential equations. Thus, the short answer is: Affine models of the term structure of interest rates [...]

China’s (de)Dollar Bonds

By |2017-10-26T17:59:47+00:00October 26th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Chinese government has sold its first dollar bond issue in thirteen years. Given that fact alone, the idea is causing more than a little confusion, perhaps consternation. Why now? What are they really up to? It seems as if it is contradictory, especially given China’s very public positions against the dollar as hegemonic reserve [...]