fbpx

bond market

Inflation HyZ1teria #2

By |2020-12-14T19:21:56-05:00December 14th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity. In our specific case here, never attribute to deviousness what is plainly incompetent Economists. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan, though he works atop one of the world’s biggest banking money dealers he got there by being a trained Economist. To bring this home, in March 2008, just [...]

Inflation Hysteria #2 (TIPS, Swaps)

By |2020-12-08T18:23:20-05:00December 8th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was only three years ago, so you’d think narratives today would at least try to account for relevant recent history. If that prior first fit of inflation hysteria had a birthdate, it would’ve probably been December 18 or 19, 2017. On the former, the US House of Representatives passed their version of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA); [...]

No Time For Pfizer, Europe Heads Back

By |2020-11-11T18:09:46-05:00November 11th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Europe’s problems are more immediate. Encouraging news about Pfizer’s vaccine won’t change the European circumstances in near enough time to avoid what’s more and more looking like a real possibility for a retrenchment. In this case, COVID cases are a primary culprit, meaning how authorities over there are responding to their rise. As such, it has taken the shine off [...]

COT B-und?

By |2020-11-03T19:38:16-05:00November 3rd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We've been documenting for weeks now how every chart, therefore every market, shows some kind of inflection around and immediately after August 27. This was Jay Powell’s big Jackson Hole fiasco, questions about the global “V” having already multiplied since June were further compounded by the absolute joke that was average inflation targeting. As noted earlier, even Germany’s bund market [...]

Even More Suggesting Something Did Happen In July

By |2020-09-09T17:26:39-04:00September 9th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Confident consumers are risk takers. Not only do they spend freely, they freely borrow in order to spend. Jay Powell has done his absolute best (I know) to convince Americans they have nothing to fear insofar as any economic fallout from COVID might be concerned. The Federal Reserve working in combination with the federal government has got every conceivable angle [...]

Inflation Hysteria 2: Because…Reasons

By |2020-08-11T19:41:15-04:00August 11th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Back in July 2018, even before, we began hearing (constantly) about how the yield curve and especially the 10-year note was no longer a reliable indicator. It just couldn’t have been. Why? Jay Powell, of course. Not just the Fed Chairman but also every mainstream Economist and highlighted Bond King, all of whom were insistent that the economy was accelerating [...]

Yield Caps = Toddlers

By |2020-07-08T17:42:59-04:00July 8th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve has cut its QE purchasing pace, and yet the US Treasury Department doesn’t seem hampered by a shortage of bidders for its record-setting note auctions. Far from “too many” Treasuries, prices are once more unequivocal how there aren’t enough. With or without Powell, the auction record is clear and, unlike those constantly talking up the BOND ROUT!!! [...]

The Reason For So Many Lies: He Finally Realizes He’s In Way Over His Head

By |2020-05-19T19:35:44-04:00May 19th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This is not a man who’s comfortable thrust into a position of leadership. Say what you want about Ben Bernanke, and there’s a lot that still needs to be said, he at least carried on with the arrogance through thick and thin (almost entirely the latter). Jay Powell sounds like a boxer who just realized the lightweight he thought he [...]

Collateral Shortage > Bond Vigilantism (and it’s not even close)

By |2020-03-23T19:22:36-04:00March 23rd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Faced with severe economic distress and a global market meltdown, they promised that it would be big. Massive fiscal “stimulus”, however, might come at a price. In the short run it was necessary, according to the orthodox view. When a crisis shows up you don’t worry about how to pay for things. Once all is said and done, the current [...]

Go to Top