201805.10
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Still No Plausible Path To Hysteria

The yearlong wireless data plan nightmare is officially over. For the second month in a row, the CPI for Wireless Telephone Services, which includes any unlimited data at fixed prices, was more stable in its annual comparison. In April 2018, the index was nearly flat to April 2017; down by less than 1%. It was,…

201804.06
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COT Blue: Which BOND ROUT!!!! Was It Really?

The only way to change the meaning of a word like “transitory” is to put together a constant string of temporary factors that when taken individually keep with the traditional definition but in combination completely obliterate it. Something happens to knock inflation off track, and then just as soon as that one thing is about…

201803.23
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Chart of the Week: JPY, not Payrolls

The biggest risk to the bond bear case, that expressed by Bill Gross, Jeffrey Gundlach, and Ray Dalio, is, ironically, stocks. Convention has it that rising interest rates are bad for them, but what are falling stock prices for UST’s? Historically speaking, the introduction of risk and even liquidations is bond positive. When the last…

201803.12
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BOND ROUT!!!! (Now With Additional Exclamations)

Ten years ago today, one of Carlyle Group’s mortgage funds, Carlyle Capital Corp (CCC), was seized by creditors. Precipitated by dwindling liquidity, the fund’s effective insolvency would amplify those global “dollar” pressures and lead to Bear Stearns’ untimely demise mere days later. The fund’s corporate parent issued a statement on March 6, 2008, that read:…

201801.19
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Nothing Goes In A Straight Line

A decade ago, the financial world was alive. I don’t mean alive in the same way much of humanity was at the fall of the Berlin Wall or on VE Day in 1945. Rather, people at that particular moment had their eyes pulled opened just a bit for the first time in a very long…

201707.18
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When You Stop Reading After The Second Sentence

On June 27, ECB President Mario Draghi opened that central bank’s international conference in Sintra, Portugal. Most media never made it past the first two sentences of his prepared remarks. For them, the verdict was already delivered in those few lines. They declared that Draghi declared monetary policy was working and the world was on…