bonds

Global Asset Allocation Update

By |2018-05-15T17:53:08+00:00May 15th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Global Asset Allocation Update, Investing, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The risk budget changes this month as I add back the 5% cash raised in late October. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation to bonds is still 50% while the risk side now rises to 50% as well. I raised the cash back in late October due to the extreme overbought nature of the [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Interest Rates Make Their Move

By |2018-04-25T13:38:33+00:00April 25th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor|

How quickly things change in these markets. In the report two weeks ago, the markets reflected a pretty obvious slowing in the global economy. In the course of two weeks, what seemed obvious has been quickly reversed. The 10-year yield moved up a quick 20 basis points in just a week, a rise in nominal [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update: The Certainty of Uncertainty

By |2018-04-16T09:33:49+00:00April 13th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Global Asset Allocation Update, Markets, Stocks|

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. Stocks continued their erratic ways since the last update with another test of the February lows that are holding - for now. While we believe growth expectations are moderating [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update: Tariffs Don’t Warrant A Change…Yet

By |2018-03-09T11:28:10+00:00March 9th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Global Asset Allocation Update, Investing, Markets, Politics, Stocks|

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. We have had continued volatility since the last update but the market action so far is pretty mundane. The initial selloff halted at the 200 day moving average [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2018-02-13T12:45:00+00:00February 13th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor|

Economic Reports Economic Growth & Income Personal income for December was better than expected at up 0.4% on the month and 4.11% year over year. Wages and salaries were up 0.5%. Unfortunately, that rate of rise is not even up to the lower end of the range we've seen in past expansions when 5% income [...]

Leverage In Argentina Is More Than Leverage And Argentina

By |2018-02-12T16:09:27+00:00February 12th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China’s shock “devaluation” was not the only one in 2015. It was the currency disruption that most people remember, even if years later they’re not sure exactly why. Paying attention to CNY makes sense, requiring no further explanation for why it might be given focus even from the otherwise unaware. In December 2015, while global [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Housing Market Accelerates

By |2018-01-02T17:19:29+00:00January 2nd, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Investing, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The economy ended 2017 with current growth just slightly above trend. In general the reports of the last two weeks of the year were pretty good with housing a standout performer going into the new year. We are still trying to get past the impact - positive and negative - from the hurricanes a few [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Gridlock & The Status Quo

By |2017-11-07T20:28:18+00:00November 7th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Investing, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The good news is that the economy just printed its second consecutive quarter of 3% growth, a feat not accomplished since Q2 and Q3 2014. The bad news is that the growth spurt in 2014 was better, quantitatively and qualitatively. Those two quarters produced gains of 4.6% and 5.2% (annualized) in GDP, much better than [...]