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The Real F-ing Boom

By |2020-02-18T18:54:40-05:00February 18th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I can’t believe this is necessary, a sign of the times and a perfect example/explanation of how it got this far. In case you haven’t heard, President Trump has gotten into a Twitter spat with his predecessor former President Obama. For reasons that have nothing to do with legitimate economics (small “e”), both men are attempting to take credit for [...]

The Inflation Check

By |2019-10-10T18:48:57-04:00October 10th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

After constantly running through what the FOMC gets (very) wrong, let’s give them some credit for what they got right. Though this will end up as a backhanded compliment, still. After having spent all of 2018 forecasting accelerating inflation indices, from around New Year’s Day forward policymakers notably changed their tune. Inflation pressures that were in December 2018 building underneath [...]

It’s Booming, Alright

By |2018-12-03T16:59:59-05:00December 3rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In most cases, it all seems so far away. I write about the shrunken global economy all the time. The evidence is all around, and yet still somehow it seems like some remote dreamscape. Human evolution hasn’t prepared us to be able to accept something so big and unconscionable. Most people’s initial response is, “what do you mean the economy [...]

Worker Wages And Who Is Really Winning

By |2018-10-04T18:19:59-04:00October 4th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Amazon made a huge splash when it announced it was raising wages. On the surface, it appeared to confirm all those stories about a massive, nationwide labor shortage. In addition, it positioned Amazon in the “fight for fifteen”, a political topic which raises more questions than provides answers. It was the rare occasion where populists on both sides applauded the [...]

Rebalancing Decoupled Booms

By |2018-08-01T12:07:19-04:00August 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The entire purpose of China’s presumed rebalancing act is supposedly that the country’s economy will no longer be strongly linked to industry. Manufacturing, for export in particular, is what made modern China into an economic powerhouse, transforming a once agrarian subsistence society (thanks to socialism). One need only look at overhead or satellite images of those cities chosen as special [...]

What Really Happened In Europe

By |2018-05-07T19:03:02-04:00May 7th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The primary example of globally synchronized growth has been Europe. Nowhere has more hope been attached to shifting fortunes. The Continent, buoyed by the persistence of central bankers like Mario Draghi, has not just accelerated it is actually booming. Or so they say. Last September, politicians were lining up to confidently declare as much, often deploying that specific word. When [...]

The Longest Falling Expansion

By |2018-04-27T19:11:14-04:00April 27th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The current expansion is already one of the longest on record. With another quarter entering the BEA’s books, it has been 35 since the last declared recession. At +2.3% for the current one, there won’t be another considered anytime soon putting this economy within reach. Yet, out of those 35 quarters only 10 have contained Real GDP growth meeting or [...]

Why The Last One Still Matters (IP Revisions)

By |2018-04-18T14:58:16-04:00April 18th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Beginning with its very first issue in May 1915, the Federal Reserve’s Bulletin was the place to find a growing body of statistics on US economic performance. Four years later, monthly data was being put together on the physical volumes of trade. From these, in 1922, the precursor to what we know today as Industrial Production was formed. The index [...]

The Retail Sales Shortage

By |2018-04-16T17:03:26-04:00April 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Retail sales rose (seasonally adjusted) in March 2018 for the first time in four months. Related to last year’s big hurricanes and the distortions they produced, retail sales had surged in the three months following their immediate aftermath and now appear to be mean reverting toward what looks like the same weak pre-storm baseline. Exactly how far (or fast) won’t [...]

Blaming The Boom Basis

By |2018-02-22T18:31:50-05:00February 22nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Once the sick man of the global economy, Europe’s system had roared back in 2017. According to the narrative, everything is right right now on the Continent. Manufacturing couldn’t possibly be any better, and the ECB forced into “emergency” monetary measures for longer than almost anyone else (except, as always, Japan) is talking confidently about winding everything down. We are [...]

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