Rate of change in economy goes down, rate of change in politics goes way up. The latter half of the formula, politics, historically applies to the internal makeup and stability of whatever country or system experiencing the macro drought as well as to its neighbors. Going back through time, any prolonged period when the economy was in distress (which typically [...]
The American view of the “rising dollar” period is one of truly understated appreciation. I wouldn’t be surprised if many of us didn’t realize there was ever a downturn to begin with, let alone one that flirted with proportions reaching recession. After all, the most widely felt effects didn’t manifest and really sting until the labor market slowdown dragged into [...]
There is a pocket of stability forming in US dollar funding markets after the “unexpected” weakness of the last Establishment Survey jobs report (particularly the large revision for July). It appears as if these dollar markets are a bit more sanguine about taper prospects, thinking that the Fed might blink next week. This would mark, if it holds, the fifth [...]
The emerging market story has unfortunately been turned into, as the kids say, a meme. According to Bloomberg, the “weakest” of the EM currencies have been dubbed the “Fragile Five” by Morgan Stanley “strategists”. These include the South African rand, Brazilian real, Indian rupee, Indonesian rupiah and Turkish lira (3 out of the 5 BRICS). Such incandescent weakness, a surprise [...]
It isn’t exactly the Thai baht, but the dong was slightly devalued yesterday. Vietnam reduced its reference rate by about 1% (the reference rate is the midpoint in a currency corridor for the dong/dollar exchange value). Vietnam devalued by about 8.5% early in 2011, so it doesn’t seem to be much of a move in comparison. But the dong follows [...]
Stay In Touch