201801.18 2

Third Time’s A Charm?

I find the article laughable. I should point out I am a millennial male though, so I would think that. We invest in bitcoin because we are BROKE, and you cannot earn any significant amount by working. And honestly, this entire market proves what we all suspected. Working is for suckers, it will not get…

201712.04
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Three Years Ago QE, Last Year It Was China, Now It’s Taxes

China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported last week that the official manufacturing PMI for that country rose from 51.6 in October to 51.8 in November. Since “analysts” were expecting 51.4 (Reuters poll of Economists) it was taken as a positive sign. The same was largely true for the official non-manufacturing PMI, rising like its counterpart…

201704.20
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What’s Left If There Is No Money Or Policy In Monetary Policy? Reality

It’s such an obvious thing, so maybe that is why no one mentions it. I doubt that is the reason, however, because doing so isn’t a mystery so much as narrowing down suspects. That is why when talking about the so-called natural rate of interest, or R* (r-star), the issue is (intentionally) cloaked in the…

201703.28
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The Basis For The Changing Economic Basis

When Apple introduced the first iPhone in January 2007, the 8 gig model retailed for $599. The company cut the price to $399 that September in an alliance with AT&T. The 8 gig iPhone 3G that debuted in July 2008, just eighteen months later, was set at $199, and less than a year after that…

201703.27
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Curves Need No R-star; Economists Need R* To Decode Curves

As the yield curve flattened out almost in a straight line from late 2013 until July 2016, it became common to suggest the historical relationship between inversion and recession. While that may still be a valid interpretation, as the yield curve ultimately did not invert and the US did avoid falling fully into recession, it…

201703.21
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All In The Curves

If the mainstream is confused about exactly what rate hikes mean, then they are not alone. We know very well what they are supposed to, but the theoretical standards and assumptions of orthodox understanding haven’t worked out too well and for a very long time now. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury is today yielding less…

201606.03
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Chart Of The Week: Stocks More Expensive Than 2000

This week’s chart comes to us from Ned Davis Research via this article on MarketWatch: What that bottom pane shows is that the median price to sales ratio for the S&P 500 is about 2.2. That is higher than in 2000, which was about as obvious a bubble as one is likely to ever see….

201507.19
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Rose Colored Glasses

All that we see or seem is but a dream within a dream. Edgar Allan Poe All things are subject to interpretation. Whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power not truth. Friedrich Nietzsche I was walking down the street wearing glasses when the prescription ran out. Steven Wright I think…

201507.12
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Cracks In The Facade

There was a point last week – probably about midday Wednesday – when it seemed that the financial world was spinning out of control. China’s Shanghai exchange was continuing its slow motion crash, down almost 6% overnight, Europe was getting hammered as Greece teetered, the NYSE suddenly stopped working, United/Continental Airlines was grounded due to…

201504.12
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Fast Money, Fast Markets

I should have known better than to write an article about the possibility of a correction in US stocks. I took a lot of abuse from the bulls this week as the US stock market shrugged off – again, for now – the weak economic data that just keeps coming. That light at the end…