business cycle

The Wage Test

By |2018-08-17T15:32:34+00:00August 17th, 2018|Markets|

In August 2014, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen described the wage dilemma in some detail. She was still relatively new to the job at that time, and there was pressure on her from among the so-called hawks to more aggressively normalize monetary policy. Ben Bernanke had taken the more cautious approach having experienced what both [...]

Why The Last One Still Matters (IP Revisions)

By |2018-04-18T14:58:16+00:00April 18th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Beginning with its very first issue in May 1915, the Federal Reserve’s Bulletin was the place to find a growing body of statistics on US economic performance. Four years later, monthly data was being put together on the physical volumes of trade. From these, in 1922, the precursor to what we know today as Industrial [...]

Giant Sucking Sound Sucks (Far) More Than US Industry Now

By |2017-12-05T18:22:44+00:00December 5th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are two possibilities with regard to stubbornly weak US imports in 2017. The first is the more obvious, meaning that the domestic goods economy despite its upturn last year isn’t actually doing anything positive other than no longer being in contraction. The second would be tremendously helpful given the circumstances of American labor in [...]

Even Less Inside Q3 GDP, Especially Where It Counts

By |2017-10-27T17:30:29+00:00October 27th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Inside the advance third quarter GDP report, the details in most of the important categories suggested slowing after two quarters consistent with “reflation” at least in its third try. If the economy swings between shallow downturns and often shallower upturns, these subcategories give us some insight as to why. Overall, growth remains at a level [...]

Why So Much Inventory?

By |2017-09-08T12:40:32+00:00September 8th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Liquidity and more so liquidity preferences are vastly misunderstood for a whole host of reasons. A lot of it has to do with the dominant strains of Economics battling each other (saltwater vs. freshwater) over which statistical model fails less frequently. In shifting to mathematics and statistics, something great has been lost. Economists don’t understand [...]

More Noise Than Signal

By |2017-08-24T21:14:27+00:00August 24th, 2017|Economy, Markets|

A number of people have forwarded this Bloomberg article - Wall Street Banks Warn Downturn Is Coming -  to me over the last couple of days. That fact alone is probably a good argument to ignore it but I can't help but read articles like this if for no other reason than to know what [...]

Inventory Slips Higher, Downside Economic Risks That Much More

By |2017-08-15T18:10:13+00:00August 15th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last week the Commerce Department reported wholesale sales in June 2017 had risen by 5.6% year-over-year (unadjusted). Having increased by nearly 10% in May, and by the most in five years in January, 5.6% was instead the same kind of 2014 disappointment that is becoming far too common. These growth figures include petroleum sales on [...]