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Macro: Industrial Production – Flat-lined

By |2023-12-19T13:09:48-05:00December 19th, 2023|Economy|

Industrial production has flat-lined over the past year. The YoY growth number is still negative but a bit better in Nov at -.4%. Dec 2022 was bad, so with a flat index for the next 2 months, YoY growth will be positive 1.1% for Dec23 and return to no growth in Jan24. We have been onshoring manufacturing. With flat industrial [...]

Macro: Sept Industrial Production

By |2023-10-17T13:57:23-04:00October 17th, 2023|Markets|

Industrial production broadly appears to have 0% growth since March and to be treading water. But, the general direction is better than it looks from that view. Since the 4th quarter of 2022 was so bad, if we continue this trajectory, the annual growth will start to show up. What's not quite as inspiring is that the growth is mostly [...]

Lack Of Industrial Momentum Is (For Now) Big Auto Problems

By |2017-08-17T16:30:21-04:00August 17th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial Production disappointed in the US last month, dragged down by auto production. Despite the return of an oil sector tailwind, IP was up just 2.2% year-over-year in July 2017 according to Federal Reserve statistics. It marks the fourth consecutive month stuck around 2% growth. The lack of further acceleration is unusual in the historical context, especially following an extended [...]

Industrial Drag

By |2017-07-14T17:32:50-04:00July 14th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Completing a busy day of US economic data, Industrial Production was, like retail sales and inflation data, highly disappointing. Prior months were revised slightly lower, leaving IP year-over-year up just 2% in June 2017 (estimates for May were initially 2.2%). Revisions included, the annual growth rate has been stuck around 2% now for three months in a row, suggesting like [...]

No Acceleration In Industry, Either

By |2017-02-15T18:20:30-05:00February 15th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial Production in the United States was flat in January 2017, following in December the first positive growth rate in over a year. The monthly estimates for IP are often subject to greater revisions than in other data series, so the figures for the latest month might change in the months ahead. Still, even with that in mind, there is [...]

Fed Declares Depression And Recovery On The Same Day

By |2016-12-14T15:58:12-05:00December 14th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last December, the Federal Reserve confirmed that it thought its monetary task was nearing completion but under conditions that’s its own data showed were nothing like recovery. In simple terms, they declared recovery and recession simultaneously on the exact same day. In orthodox economics, that isn’t actually impossible, though we have to define both terms. The factual basis for each [...]

Far Too Late, Industrial Production Revisions Predictably Erased The Recovery

By |2016-05-17T12:33:29-04:00May 17th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial production contracted for the eighth straight month in April, dropping 1.07% year-over-year. That’s a slight improvement from those prior months but likely only until April’s estimate is revised lower in the coming months. That has been the trend of late in both immediate terms as well as serious long-term revision to benchmarks. As far as the former, it suggests [...]

Revisions To Industrial Production Show, Unsurprisingly, Much Less Recovery And Even More Recession

By |2016-04-15T16:26:40-04:00April 15th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

US industrial production fell yet again in March to (benchmark revised) -2% year-over-year. With updated revisions, the contraction in IP now extends seven months rather than what would have been just five under the prior assumptions. As anticipated yesterday, auto production was a leading factor in the retreat. Manufacturing output decreased 0.3 percent in March. The production of durables moved [...]

Industrial Production Drops For A Fourth Straight Month

By |2016-03-16T16:17:43-04:00March 16th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

US Industrial Production contracted for the fourth consecutive month in February, falling 1.03% year-over-year. It was the third drop of more than 1% in those four months, leaving the 6-month average now at -0.57%. A single month of -1% is usually associated with recession, let alone three of the past four and a negative six-month average. Except for one four-month [...]

Cleanup Already Begun

By |2016-01-15T15:25:44-05:00January 15th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If top level sales are not to ever become what economists projected, as retail sales left little doubt in December, then what is left is to no longer hold the line as best as possible on resources and inputs. With inventory already massive, production must be brought down to equalize sales at each level plus already accumulated(ing) inventory. With the [...]

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