fbpx

capital spending

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: One Down, Three To Go

By |2019-10-23T15:09:41-04:00February 27th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

Economic Reports Economic Growth & Investment We pay particular attention to broad based indicators of growth. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators are examples. We watch them because we are mostly interested in identifying inflection points in the broad economy and aren't as interested in the details.  Why? Because, while bear markets do [...]

Chicago Really, Really Didn’t Cooperate

By |2015-02-27T16:35:47-05:00February 27th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The last time I commented on the Chicago Business Barometer (formerly the Chicago PMI) it was over a one-month drop that was quickly erased. That violated a personal rule whereby I make every effort to ignore sentiment surveys as they both do not mean what they are taken for and are usually of dubious value. The reason I commented then [...]

Was Credit Right?

By |2015-01-27T12:36:44-05:00January 27th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There may be something to December after all. It was credit markets that shifted downward (bearish yield curves and credit spreads) dramatically around the end of November and the first few days of December. Given the persistence of large players moving credit and funding markets, this may not be all that hard to fathom with the close proximity of credit [...]

GDP Pieces

By |2014-08-28T12:33:27-04:00August 28th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Following up on my earlier observations about a reduced trajectory, getting away from the thick trees of quarterly statistic movements and revision for the forest of patterns and paths, viewing the subcomponents of GDP as standalone accounts rather than contributors highlights exactly that problem. Whether you view the economy through real final sales (both of domestic product and to domestic [...]

Durable Goods Are ‘Better’ Only in Narrow Focus

By |2014-08-26T15:48:56-04:00August 26th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Factoring the record pace of Boeing’s distortions on durable goods, the series has picked up in the past two months after major and large upward revisions to June’s estimates. The increase in growth encompasses nearly all of the subsegments, as new orders and shipments for both durable goods (ex transportation) and nondefense capital goods (ex aircraft) increased measurably over July [...]

Opiate of the Media

By |2014-07-11T15:46:14-04:00July 11th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The post tax data coming in from Japan continues to perform far worse than expected under the assumption of an actual recovery (that’s too long for mainstream adoption, but if there was a common mantra for the globe since 2009 that’s as close as it may get). Household spending and real estate contracted in April, as expected, but it wasn’t [...]

Go to Top