This number was truly stunning and almost unbelievable. Chi-palm as we used to call in back in the day jumped from a recessionary level of 44 to 55.8. The index has done this when exiting recession and also acted this way just before going into a recession. After sitting in recessionary territory for a year, it jumps 12 points. We [...]
Similar to other regional surveys, down .1 from September and near the average for the year. Soft conditions. We need directional confirmation. Chicago Business Barometer Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None of the information herein constitutes [...]
For many, it was just too good. In early 2013, gold prices were slammed – twice. Just after QE3 was announced, gold had moved back up to almost $1,800 per ounce as it “should” have, reflecting all that future “money printing.” Rather than keep going, however, gold started to drop and then drop some more so that by the time [...]
For October 2014, the ISM estimated that its Chicago Business Barometer was a blistering 66.2. Encompassing much of the Midwest and a good deal of auto and parts production, that level seemed to make sense. As any economist would say then, the US economy was on the verge of a breakout and according to the labor statistics maybe even one [...]
New home sales surged in April to 619k SAAR. That was the highest rate, by far, since January 2008 more than eight years ago. It was also the biggest monthly gain in twenty-four years, which either suggests home sales are more than rebounding or casts doubt upon the quality of the data. Economists left no uncertainty as to which way [...]
The Chicago Business Barometer fell sharply again in February, almost exactly as it had risen sharply in January. In fact, for the past year that has been the dominant pattern of sharp alternating swings between “growth” and “contraction.” Despite that, months showing up below 50 (this is still a PMI) are still somehow “unexpected”: Chicago-area business activity unexpectedly contracted in [...]
While we await a flood of data for December spending and retail activity to confirm what we already suspect by proxy, the updated figures for November going backwards in the production process stand as yet another warning. Retail sales figures were typically abysmal, as were private indications of spending. The Thompson Reuters Same Store Sales Index, a measure of actual [...]
The last few pieces of data for Q3 more than suggest the US economy faltered in August/September. That trend would be alarming on its own had it occurred in a financial vacuum (as if ceteris paribus actually existed), but following along against the “dollar” is especially so. There was the initial, large decline in early 2015 that “unexpectedly” shocked economists [...]
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for June was up to 53.5 which was the best monthly showing this year. That has been taken as inarguable insistence that the US factory sector is doing what economists expect, even though 53.5 is significantly below both June 2014 and the 12-month average (which includes four months beginning February below 53) of 54.7. As usual, [...]
A couple more points about GDP revisions and the outlook for Q2. First, with inventory revisions factored, GDP less the inventory contribution was -1.03%; worse than last year’s polar vortex problem. It was the worst quarterly result since the Great Recession, which more than suggests economic weakness as more than just winter or seasonal adjustments. If there is any seasonal [...]
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