A tale of two economies? At first, it might seem that way. However, this isn’t the first time apparent divergences have arisen. On the contrary, “decoupling” is a recurrent theme even though, in the end, it never happens. Of the major data released today, one set from the United States, the other in China. The former seemingly justifying the Federal [...]
The guy was, as usual, explicitly candid when he spoke to his crowd of global billionaires. The Davos gathering of the superrich does much for generating clickbait headlines, though typically followed by the most nondescript phrases only passed off as useful insight. In this setting, Xi Jinping really has been the disruptor.How’s that for irony?Their message - they being everyone [...]
If markets seem a bit on edge, I guess omicron seems a good reason if for no other reason than we don’t know much about it. But even that reaction points toward something else. A truly robust economy has little to fear from such unknowns, even from what might be predictable overreaction across the entire public sphere.The knee-jerk negative sentiment [...]
The inventory saga, planetary in its reach. As you’ve heard, American demand for goods supercharged by the federal government’s helicopter combined with a much more limited capacity to rebound in the logistics of the goods economy left a nightmare for supply chains. As we’ve been writing lately, a highly unusual maybe unprecedented inventory cycle resulted (creating “inflation”).The worse the shipping [...]
At great risk of upsetting China’s army of censors, I’m going to “slander” the Chinese economy anyway. Were I a comrade within that particular nation, I’d now get labeled a “black mouth” spreading misinformation in the form of actual up-to-date data published by the same Communist government fearing its spread. Rate of change in the economy goes down, rate of [...]
It’s been a little too on-the-nose. Claiming only a minimum level of dramatic license here, what we have continuing toward an uneasy future is a case of life imitating art (which imitated real life). We’ve all heard of Shakespeare’s famed soothsayer cautioning the arrogant Roman Emperor Caesar to watch his back on March 15. How about the 18th?Beware the Ides [...]
It’s not really a war so much as somewhat of a disagreement. And it’s not an unfamiliar one, as time and again these things tend to come down to timing. The global economy remains synchronized, only certain parts of it go ahead first before others then the rest end up joining. Carried into the realm of PMI’s, diverges in sentiment [...]
The offside of “synchronized” is pretty obvious when you consider all possibilities. In economic terms, synchronized growth would mean if the bulk of the economy starts moving forward, we’d expect the rest to follow with only a slight lag. That’s the upside of harmonized systems, the period everyone hopes and cheers for. What happens, however, when it’s the leaders rather [...]
China’s PMI’s continue to impress despite the fact they continue to be wholly unimpressive. As with most economic numbers in today’s stock-focused obsessiveness, everything is judged solely by how much it “surprises.” Surprises who? Doesn’t matter; some faceless group of analysts and Economists whose short-term modeling has somehow become the very standard of performance.According to one such group, China’s official [...]
In a scene straight out of the Stalinist playbook, no one dared anything but to do their part pitching in with thunderous applause. Five hundred deputies from across China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region showed up at the regional “people’s” Congress in January 2018 to elect the delegates who would represent them and the region’s 25 million inhabitants at the National [...]
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