Commodity Prices Look to Confirm
Following up on the global trade warning out of Australia, commodity prices are acting as another corroborating piece of the global slowdown. Typically, copper acts as a decent barometer of global manufacturing activity, earning the nickname Dr. Copper. Copper prices have slumped recently, moving back to the lows of mid-2011 (just before the European re-recession .. read more
The Wonderful Warning of OZ
The global supply chain is pretty well established at this point, particularly in the years since the obvious dollar devaluation (Y2K and forward). Commodity countries like the BRICs (South Africa only gets included in BRICS when gold is mentioned) ship to manufacturing centers in the east, primarily China, that assemble and manufacture for further embarkation .. read more
Correlation…
…does not always equal causation, but sometimes the data fits the inference.
A Welter Of Worries
It is said that bull markets climb a wall of worry but if that were true, then Wall and Broad should look like downtown Pamplona in July with market bears gored, trampled, spindled, mutilated and wrapped around the buttonwood tree. The list of worries for investors seems to grow by the day with slowing Chinese .. read more
Tactical Update
This week, one particular article sparked an intense internal dialogue about some of the global economic realities that have us concerned. The article is from Peking University’s Professor Michael Pettis. Prof. Pettis opines that Chinese citizens would rather save than spend and that Japan, who has recently run a current account deficit, would prefer to .. read more
German Bund Auction is Ominous Sign
According to Bloomberg (chart below), German 10-Yr yields have doubled overnight. Bid to cover ratio was an extremely low 35%. Some unconfirmed reports indicate it’s the worst auction in Germany’s history since the start of the Euro. An ominous sign for Europe’s safe-haven asset. That news coupled with weakness in China’s factory output has resulted in .. read more
China Wants US to Support the Dollar
How bad is our economic policy when we have to get good advice from the Chinese?: “In talks with Clinton, China will ask for a guarantee that the U.S. will support the dollar’s exchange rate and make sure China’s dollar-denominated assets are safe,” said He in Beijing. “That would be one of the prerequisites for .. read more
