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China Opens Up And Not Much Else

By |2022-06-15T20:13:50-04:00June 15th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Neither Jay Powell nor Janet Yellen see recession risk. They’re coverage, though, ends at the US boundary, each thoroughly trained on the wrong idea the US economy is an island. While it isn’t and it has its own very visible recession problems right now, properly speaking globally there’s no bigger recession risk-ignition than over on the other side of the [...]

Globally Synchronized Last October, Not Some Far-Distant Future Risk

By |2022-06-14T20:23:23-04:00June 14th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Rate hikes weren’t even a twinkle in Chairman Powell’s eye, not really. Taper was barely on the table at that time, let alone double-taper or today’s rush into QT. Back in October, they all (correctly) still used the word transitory, therefore officials were taking their sweet time winding down QE6.With the Fed barely evolving from full-on – so it couldn’t [...]

Curve Inversion 101: US CPI Politics Up Front, China PPI Down(ing) The Back

By |2022-06-13T18:54:55-04:00June 13th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While the world fixated on the US CPI, it was other “inflation” data from across the Pacific that is telling the real economic story. Having conflated the former with a red-hot economy, the fact American consumer prices aren’t tied to the actual economic situation has been lost in the shuffle of the FOMC’s hawkishness, with markets obliged to price wrong-way [...]

Demand Wasn’t Supposed To Be The Problem

By |2022-06-06T18:05:35-04:00June 6th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

They called it an atmospheric river, though I’m not really sure who “they” was nor whether the term is scientific or just media hype. Either way, in early November the Pacific Northwest of the US along with Western Canada was inundated by a, well, river of rainfall. Mudslides, torrential downpours, just a muddy mess across the entire region. At one [...]

Follow China’s True Line

By |2022-05-31T19:31:57-04:00May 31st, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s a broken a record, the macro stylus stuck unable to move on, just skipping and repeating the same spot on the vinyl. Since Xi Jinping’s lockdowns broke it, as it’s said, when Xi is satisfied there’s zero COVID he’ll release the restrictions and that will fix everything. The economy will go right back to good, like flipping a switch.Where [...]

Is It Being Demanded?

By |2022-05-26T19:40:07-04:00May 26th, 2022|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Shipping container rates have been dropping since early March – right around the time when we had just experienced our “collateral days” and then stood by to witness chaotic financial fireworks, inversions, the whole thing. The bane of the logistical supply-side snafu-ing, it has been container redistribution mucking the goods economy up. The recent and sharp decline in container rates, [...]

Xi’s National Security ‘Stimulus’ Reaches The People’s Bank of China

By |2022-05-20T17:37:15-04:00May 20th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Xi Jinping’s true aim, in my view, isn’t to severely limit the spread of the coronavirus, seeking its ultimate eradication, rather to curtail dissent particularly any views contrary to his handling of China’s increasingly desperate economy. Mao’s Xi’s purpose is to completely eliminate all opposition. This intentional security policy has now been extended to the People’s Bank of China itself. [...]

Synchronized Not Coronavirus

By |2022-05-17T17:55:34-04:00May 17th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is an understandable tendency to just write off this weekend’s disastrous Chinese data as nothing more than pandemic politics. After all, it has been Emperor Xi’s harsh lockdowns spreading like wildfire across China rather than any disease (why it has been this way, that’s another Mao-tter). Open the cities back up, as many are doing right now, the world [...]

Synchronizing Chinese Prices (and consequences)

By |2022-05-12T20:28:47-04:00May 12th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It isn’t just the vast difference between Chinese consumer prices and those in the US or Europe, China’s CPI has been categorically distinct from China’s PPI, too. That distance hints at the real problem which the whole is just now beginning to confront, having been lulled into an inflationary illusion made up from all these things.To start with, yesterday China’s [...]

Industrial Synchronized Demand

By |2022-05-10T20:05:48-04:00May 10th, 2022|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Are the industrial commodities starting to get a whiff of demand side rejection? Short run trends suggest that this could be the case. From copper to iron and the highest (formerly) of the high flyers, aluminum, this particular group has been exhibiting a rather synchronized setback going back to the end of March, start of April.This despite supply bottlenecks and [...]

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