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If Inflation, Why Not Christmas From Mexico?

By |2021-08-25T17:16:28-04:00August 25th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The incidences of what’s downright bizarre have curiously become more frequent. Sign of the times. Pick your realm or timetable, there’s so much going wrong while completely disconnected from the “official” description of, or explanation for, whatever. Along these lines, did the US VP just warn America’s children from Singapore that Santa Claus’ legendary trade will be delayed, perhaps canceled?Summer [...]

If The Best Case For Consumer Christmas Is That It Started Off In The Wrong Month…

By |2019-12-13T12:49:56-05:00December 13th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Gone are the days when Black Friday dominated the retail calendar. While it used to be a somewhat fun way to kick off the holiday shopping season, it had morphed into something else entirely in later years. Scenes of angry shoppers smashing each other over the few big deals stores would truly offer, internet clips of crying children watching in [...]

Scrooge’s Income ‘L’

By |2018-03-29T11:55:25-04:00March 29th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We keep revisiting the concept of “residual seasonality” quite purposefully, even though on its face it is an absurd one. It is in every way emblematic of the current state of Economics and the commentary derived from it. Residual seasonality is the kind of delusion that has become commonplace, a coping mechanism for an economy that continues to be very [...]

Aggregate Demand’s Shocking Lack of ‘Demand’

By |2015-02-12T12:54:02-05:00February 12th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I have to hand it to the good work done by Gallup, as their tracking polls have “previewed” the “official” retail sales reports these past few months. Gallup found another Polar Vortex-like hole in consumer spending and sure enough the Census Bureau confirmed as much. It is decidedly ugly and can do nothing but put a major dent in the [...]

GDP Matches 2012

By |2013-11-07T12:42:23-05:00November 7th, 2013|Markets|

The BEA estimated that GDP in Q3 accelerated to 2.8% over Q2 2013, coincidentally matching the Q/Q growth rate from Q3 2012 (more on that in a moment). The largest “boosts” to GDP came from tumbling imports and growing inventories. Those two segments accounted for 1.2% in additional “growth” over Q2. While inventories rose and consumers and businesses bought less [...]

Retailers Get Smarter After Buying Into QE Last Year

By |2013-09-24T14:28:08-04:00September 24th, 2013|Markets|

I suppose there is more than one way to interpret K-Mart’s decision to air the first Christmas ad 105 days before the actual holiday, but to most sane people it was a sign of creeping pessimism. Retailers have already been behind in their sales expectations for much of the first half of the year, despite relatively uniform optimism at the [...]

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