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Weekly Market Pulse: Questions

By |2024-02-20T08:46:05-05:00February 20th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't [...]

Perspective On A New Year

By |2024-01-08T08:00:54-05:00January 7th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

I'm back! I took most of the month of December off, as I do every year, to do some thinking. Per the title of this essay, the purpose of these year-end musings is to gain some perspective. In the day-to-day, week-to-week, movements of the markets it is easy to forget that we are investing with a timeline measured in years, [...]

Survey of Salient Risks to Financial Stability

By |2023-10-23T15:09:14-04:00October 23rd, 2023|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Here is a brief summary of what is of concern to domestic and international policymakers, academics, community groups, and others. We might call these "known risks." Persistent inflation and monetary tightening Persistent or reaccelerating inflationary pressures Resilient economic outlook leading to further monetary policy tightening Volatile market conditions Entrenched expectations of higher inflation leading to higher realized inflation leading to [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Prophets of Doom

By |2023-10-16T08:05:11-04:00October 15th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

I said a couple of years ago that I thought that once all the distortions were past, we'd be back to where we started prior to COVID, but with more debt. The decade from 2010 to 2020 was the slowest decade of nominal GDP growth since WWII and the prospect of another decade of that wasn't all that appealing but [...]

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