201711.16 2

Huge Crude Stakes

There is a titanic struggle going on right now in the oil market. On the one side of the futures market are the usual pace setters, the money managers. Last week, the latest COT data available, they went the most net long since March. If it continues, it will close in on the most positive…


COT Black: Crude Balance Here?

Oil prices have had a very good run for several months now. Dating back to the recent low reached June 21, WTI is up an impressive 35% to a new two-year high. Crude hasn’t traded at $57 since June 2015. During this latest increase, the oil futures curve has finally achieved backwardation (which isn’t necessarily…


Data Brand Dependence

If it is a day ending in “y” you can be sure there is somewhere in the financial press a story or “news report” of the looming bond selloff – even if it is due to some future event or made up phenomenon. Today’s is another in the series this time using a dramatized setup…

201710.25 1

Bond Kings and the Future(s)

Maybe there is hope for the media yet. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield has passed above 2.40% for the first time in several months. In the past any similar move or technical breakout of the like was met with uniform screeching about a BOND ROUT!!! This time, however, commentary appears at least to…


COT Report: Black (Crude) and Blue (UST’s)

Over the past month, crude prices have been pinned in a range $50 to the high side and ~$46 at the low. In the futures market, the price of crude is usually set by the money managers (how net long they shift). As discussed before, there have been notable exceptions to this paradigm including some…


Commitment of Traders: Crude Confounding Confusion

The price of oil can’t seem to climb out of the $40’s despite a lot going for it at the moment. Oil prices matter right now as much as three years ago when they signaled serious trouble ahead. For them to get above $50 and then continue on would indicate for a lot of important…


Not Really Wrong On Bonds

It is often said that the market for US Treasuries is the deepest and most liquid in the world. While that’s true, we have to be careful about what it is we are talking about. There is no single US Treasury market, and often differences can be striking. The most prominent example was, of course,…


Deeper Penetration of Doubt?

Something had to give one way or the other. With all the oil traders piled onto the long side, either demand had to seriously pick up (or plausibly appear ready to do so) or the weak hands would start to capitulate. But as WTI has pulled back from $54 to around so far $48, the…


Why Aren’t Oil Prices $50 Ahead?

Right now there are two conventional propositions behind the “reflation” trade, and in many ways both are highly related if not fully intertwined. The first is that interest rates have nowhere to go but up. The Fed is raising rates again and seems more confident in doing more this year than it wanted to last…