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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Draghi Moves Markets

By |2019-10-23T15:09:54-04:00July 2nd, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets|

In my last update two weeks ago I commented on the continued weakness in the economic data. The economic surprises were overwhelmingly negative and our market based indicators confirmed that weakness. This week the surprises are not in the economic data but in the indicators. And surprising as well is the source of the outbreak of optimism in the bond [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Has The Fed Heard Of Amazon?

By |2019-10-23T15:09:55-04:00June 18th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The economic surprises keep piling up on the negative side of the ledger as the Fed persists in tightening policy or at least pretending that they are. If a rate changes in the wilderness can the market hear it? Outside of the stock market one would be hard pressed to find evidence of the effectiveness of all the Fed's extraordinary [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: The Return of Economic Ennui

By |2017-06-07T16:00:52-04:00June 6th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

The economic reports released since the last of these updates was generally not all that bad but the reports considered more important were disappointing. And it should be noted that economic reports lately have generally been worse than expected which, if you believe the market to be fairly efficient, is what really matters. The disappointing employment report and the generally [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2017-05-22T16:34:28-04:00May 22nd, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The economic data releases since the last update were generally upbeat but markets are forward looking and the future apparently isn't to their liking. Of course, it is hard to tell sometimes whether bonds, the dollar and stocks are responding to the real economy or the one people hope Donald Trump can deliver when he isn't busy contradicting his communications [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update

By |2019-10-23T15:07:35-04:00May 18th, 2017|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are, however, changes within the asset classes. We are reducing the equity allocation and raising the allocation to REITs.  Based on the bond markets there has been little change in the growth and [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2017-05-08T14:59:51-04:00May 8th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies|

The economic reports since the last economic update were generally less than expected and disappointing. The weak growth of the last few years had been supported by autos and housing while energy has been a wildcard. When oil prices fell, starting in mid-2014 and bottoming in early 2016, economic growth suffered as the shale industry retrenched. I said during that [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update

By |2019-10-23T15:07:36-04:00April 18th, 2017|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Stocks|

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50.  The performance of markets in the first quarter of the year was a bit schizophrenic. Stocks performed well which one might interpret as a reflection of improving economic growth prospects. Certainly President Trump and [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update

By |2019-10-23T15:11:43-04:00March 15th, 2017|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50.  The Fed spent the last month forward guiding the market to the rate hike they implemented today. Interest rates, real and nominal, moved up in anticipation of a more aggressive Fed rate hiking cycle. [...]

Time, The Biggest Risk

By |2017-03-09T19:19:28-05:00March 9th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If there is still no current or present indication of rising economic fortunes, and there isn’t, then the “reflation” idea turns instead to what might be different this time as compared to the others. In 2013 and 2014, it was QE3 and particularly the intended effects (open ended and faster paced, a bigger commitment by the Fed to purportedly do [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update

By |2019-10-23T15:11:44-04:00February 12th, 2017|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

There hasn't been a lot of change in our indicators since the last update and therefore, despite my discomfort with the altitude of this stock market, there are no changes to the Global Asset Allocation this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50.  Bond markets moved around some during the [...]

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