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compensation

Macro: Employment Cost Index

By |2023-10-31T10:24:06-04:00October 31st, 2023|Economy|

Just confirming, wage growth is running around 4.5%. This is still elevated relative to history and not consistent with an inflation target of 2%. But the growth is coming down. Government wages actually had an uptick in the 3rd qtr. I would not expect that to continue.   Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not [...]

Macro: Personal Income and Outlays

By |2023-10-28T18:45:57-04:00October 28th, 2023|Economy|

The growth rate of income and consumption are at healthy levels. But there are some aspects of the growth I'd like to point out. Though we have healthy rates of growth, the concern is that both incomes and consumption are slowing. I know we had excess savings from government transfers to the private sector. But we also had excess spending [...]

Why The Japanese Are Suddenly Messing With YCC

By |2019-10-03T19:01:36-04:00October 3rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While the world’s attention was fixated on US$ repo for once, the Bank of Japan held a policy meeting and turned in an even more “dovish” performance. Likely the global central bank plan had been to combine the Fed’s second rate cut with what amounted to a simultaneous Japanese pledge for more “stimulus” in October. Both of those followed closely [...]

Settling the State of Labor

By |2017-08-08T15:49:20-04:00August 8th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The JOLTS report for June 2017 showed another surge in Job Openings. Hitting a record high, the BLS estimates there were nearly 6.2 million, up sharply from 5.7 million in May. As many in the media like to point out, Janet Yellen has declared Job Openings a favored economic statistics purportedly as a gauge of labor demand. Why they think [...]

The Lingering Maladjustments: Structural Labor Artifacts

By |2013-09-06T16:30:11-04:00September 6th, 2013|Markets|

Since it is an employment report Friday it seems appropriate to continue on the theme of dysfunction in the labor market. I’ve already covered the more recent occurrences of the structural change post-2009, here I want to examine the foundation for this paradigm shift. As part of its academic arm, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a monthly review of [...]

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