Why aren't we in recession yet? That's a question that has been asked often over the last year but with no real satisfying answer. I have my own beliefs on the subject, rooted in the distortions of COVID. (You can read about it in my latest Follow The Money piece) I think my explanation is a pretty good one but even [...]
What's your outlook for this year? I've heard that question repeatedly over the last month and if you're reading this hoping I'll let you have a peek at my crystal ball, you're going to be disappointed. Because I don't have a crystal ball and neither, I hasten to add, does anyone else in this business. So, no, I don't know [...]
It ain't so much the things we don't know that get us into trouble. It's the things we know that just ain't so. Mark Twain Mark Twain probably wasn't thinking of investors when he wrote those words, but truer ones have rarely been written. Investors routinely become overconfident in their assessment of economic and market conditions. They assume that [...]
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