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construction spending

Macro: Construction Spending

By |2024-01-02T10:58:39-05:00January 2nd, 2024|Economy|

Residential construction continues to strengthen as non-residential construction may have peaked. The non-residential spending is a result of the public sector which contracted in November after a huge run for the last 18 months. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any [...]

Macro: Construction spending

By |2023-12-01T13:43:57-05:00December 1st, 2023|Economy|

Construction spending growth accelerates again. This is all about non-residential construction spend which is growing at 20% yoy whereas residential spend is only growing by 1% but is at least finally a positive contributor. To be fair, the additive growth top GDP has been impressive, but it is waning. November 2022 was a big contributor and the annual growth equation [...]

Macro: Construction spending — it’s all about infrastructure and reshoring

By |2023-11-01T13:15:27-04:00November 1st, 2023|Economy|

Total construction spending is growing at 8.7% and that is an increase from 7.6% growth last month. Like we saw in the housing data, residential construction is improving. It now stands at -2.1% from a year ago, an improvement from the -4.4% yoy growth we saw last month. Non-residential spending is where we see an absolute boom. The reshoring story [...]

Macro: Housing Starts

By |2023-10-18T13:15:45-04:00October 18th, 2023|Economy|

I've been reading some lately about all the housing units that are coming to market and the likely hit to house prices and rents that will accompany this supply. Looking at the housing pipeline (Units permitted but not started + Units started + Units under construction + Units completed this month), we are elevated by about 680,000 units on an [...]

Don’t Forget (Business) Credit

By |2020-02-04T16:00:10-05:00February 4th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Rolling over in credit stats, particularly business debt, is never a good thing for an economy. As noted yesterday, in Europe it’s not definite yet but sure is pronounced. The pattern is pretty clear even if we don’t ultimately know how it will play out from here. The process of reversing is at least already happening and so we are [...]

Consistent Trade War Inconsistency Hides The Consistent Trend

By |2019-12-03T18:53:40-05:00December 3rd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You can see the pattern, a weathervane of sorts in its own right. Not for how the economy is actually going, mind you, more along the lines of how it is being perceived from the high-level perspective. The green light for “trade wars” in the first place was what Janet Yellen and Jay Powell had said about the economy. Because [...]

Toward Rate Cuts: What If The Landmine Was Real?

By |2019-07-01T17:05:31-04:00July 1st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was supposed to be the Chinese government who was going to rescue the global economy. Once the rationalizations ended and officials around the world realized there was serious economic weakness building at the end of 2018 instead of a globally synchronized inflationary recovery, the green shoots of 2019 were going to be in one big part a fiscal stimulus [...]

Greenspan’s Massacre Masterpiece

By |2019-03-13T13:16:33-04:00March 13th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What most Economists “learned” from the Great Inflation was how important psychological factors had become. You would think that such a huge monetary disconnect would teach especially monetary officials the importance of monetary competence. However, as Upton Sinclair once wrote, paraphrasing, it’s difficult to get a central banker to understand money when his paycheck can be saved by blaming you [...]

No Building Left To Build A Boom

By |2019-03-04T18:26:44-05:00March 4th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the last several years, the US recovery following its experience with the global 2015-16 downturn has been lacking in several key dimensions. Reflation #3 in the real economy has reflected the lack of momentum and altitude in the snapback across the eurodollar system. As such, of all the reflation episodes this last one was upside down; it was by [...]

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