construction spending

Capex and Taxes; What The Corporate Sector Is Saying About the Economy

By |2018-09-04T16:57:57+00:00September 4th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Private US businesses are not building new facilities, or renovating old ones, at a rate that suggests the economy is doing well. Let alone booming. For more than two years now, the aggregate level of Private Non-residential Construction Spending has been flat. According to the Census Bureau in figures released today, construction capex in July [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2018

By |2018-08-15T13:36:41+00:00August 15th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

The Q2 GDP report (+4.1% from the previous quarter, annualized) was heralded by the administration as a great achievement and certainly putting a 4 handle on quarter to quarter growth has been rare this cycle, if not unheard of (Q4 '09, Q4 '11, Q2 & Q3 '14). But looking at the GDP change year over [...]

Construction Problems

By |2018-08-01T17:07:57+00:00August 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Total construction spending rose 5.5% year-over-year (unadjusted) in June 2018. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, spending fell rather sharply two months ago though that doesn’t really matter given the short-term noise of month-to-month changes. The real problem is this 5.5% given that public construction has been moving higher since last year’s big hurricanes. In other words, [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Welcome To The Slowdown

By |2018-07-07T23:53:47+00:00July 6th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Investing, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Politics, Stocks|

Welcome to the slowdown. It isn't much - yet - and it may just be a passing phase, but there is little doubt that the US economy has slowed somewhat. The rise in short term interest rates has stalled and the long end of the curve has rallied. The result is a flatter yield curve [...]

Did China Really Win, or Did Everyone Lose?

By |2018-04-02T16:05:00+00:00April 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Of all the economic accounts where last year’s big tropical storms would have had the greatest impact, any substantial boost in construction spending made the most sense. What is destroyed is most often quickly rebuilt, particularly in the public arena. One of the core functions of local government is infrastructure, and no local politician can [...]

Construction Spending Unrelated To Harvey and Irma (Though Some That Is)

By |2018-03-02T17:01:22+00:00March 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Markets|

Public construction spending has rebounded since July last year on what looks to be storm-related cleanup costs. The Census Bureau unfortunately does not break down total spending by geographic region, which, obviously, would clarify whether or not this has been the case. For now, absent also estimates for Q4 state and local tax collections, we [...]

The Austerity Path

By |2018-02-05T13:00:58+00:00February 5th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What happened to the recovery? It’s a complex question with a surprisingly simple answer. The density of the topic, particularly entangled as it was in close proximity to the calamity of the Great “Recession”, clouded the diagnosis. If you ask ten different academic economists you might get ten different answers, though I suspect seven or [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: A Weak Dollar Stirs A Toxic Stew

By |2018-01-15T17:48:01+00:00January 15th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Economic Reports Employment We received several employment related reports in the first two weeks of the year. The rate of growth in employment has been slowing for some time - slowly - and these reports continue that trend. The JOLTS report showed a drop in job openings, hires and quits. The Fed has been talking [...]

The Anti-Reflation Story Is The One That Mattered, And The Treasury Market Isn’t The Only One Telling It

By |2018-01-03T12:38:39+00:00January 3rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Treasury market isn’t the only place where the idea of “globally synchronized growth” is proving a tough sell. The collapse of the yield curve suggests, in fact, it isn’t being bought one bit. Apart from bonds, US companies aren’t warming to the economic warming, either. The labor market apart from the unemployment rate remains [...]

The Construction Example

By |2017-10-03T12:04:26+00:00October 3rd, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Construction spending rose slightly in August after two months of serious declines. At a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of $1.22 trillion, that’s slightly less than the estimate for November 2016 when “reflation” (sentiment) was at its apex. It’s a pattern that we see repeated throughout the economic accounts; some growth in the second half of last [...]