fbpx

construction spending

The Construction Example

By |2017-10-03T12:04:26-04:00October 3rd, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Construction spending rose slightly in August after two months of serious declines. At a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of $1.22 trillion, that’s slightly less than the estimate for November 2016 when “reflation” (sentiment) was at its apex. It’s a pattern that we see repeated throughout the economic accounts; some growth in the second half of last year but then instead of [...]

Now Capex?

By |2017-09-01T18:47:28-04:00September 1st, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Of all the high frequency data the Personal Savings Rate is probably the least reliable. It is subject to both regular and benchmark revisions that can change the estimates drastically one way or the other. One step up from that statistic is the figures for Construction Spending. The initial monthly estimates don’t survive very long, and lately they have been [...]

Fourth Order ‘Rising Dollar’ Effects Hit 2017

By |2017-08-02T16:31:41-04:00August 2nd, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Total construction spending fell considerably in June 2017, according to Census Bureau estimates released yesterday. Seasonally-adjusted, layouts for new construction declined by 1.3% from May. That’s the second time in the last three months there was such a large drop. Year-over-year (unadjusted), total spending grew by just 1.2%, the lowest rate of expansion since November 2011 (subject to revisions, which [...]

Fiscal ‘Stimulus’ Will Be Starting From Less Than Zero

By |2017-03-02T17:09:55-05:00March 2nd, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For a “reflation” regime predicated as much on government spending, it was an inauspicious start. Construction spending fell sharply in January, as lackluster growth in the private sector could not offset sharp declines in government activity. At the state and local level, construction spending fell nearly 5% from December (seasonally-adjusted), while at the federal level spending dropped more than 7%. [...]

Not The ‘Usual’ Weakness

By |2016-08-01T17:24:52-04:00August 1st, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Construction spending had been increasing steadily since the start of 2011. Factoring both the size of the decline due to the housing bust and the timing of the turnaround in sales and prices, the mere fact that construction activity had been recovering was not really economically significant. As with most economic sectors, positive growth even to a substantial degree did [...]

Construction Is Dragging

By |2015-03-04T16:33:02-05:00March 4th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Lost amid last week’s stock euphoria was the collapse in both the ISM’s Chicago Business Barometer (which I covered here) and construction spending. While sentiment surveys are hard to judge, it wasn’t a huge intuitive leap to suggest that both data points may be related to the energy sector. While that will remain unanswered for Chicago, the construction figures are [...]

Is The US Already In Recession?

By |2012-12-09T17:51:09-05:00December 9th, 2012|Economy, Markets|

Is the US economy already in a recession? That's what Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute believes. He made the media rounds last week and his message was a simple one - the US economy has been in recession since July of this year. ECRI has a flawless record of predicting US recessions and so we should probably [...]

Go to Top