construction

Macro: Housing Starts

By |2023-10-18T13:15:45-04:00October 18th, 2023|Economy|

I've been reading some lately about all the housing units that are coming to market and the likely hit to house prices and rents that will accompany this supply. Looking at the housing pipeline (Units permitted but not started + Units started + Units under construction + Units completed this month), we are elevated by about 680,000 units on an [...]

What’s The Consensus Kenneth?

By |2023-06-25T15:11:36-04:00June 24th, 2023|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

I spend a lot of time thinking about what "everyone" else believes about the economy and markets. If you've been reading my weekly scribblings for any time, you know I have little faith in the soothsayers of this industry. No one knows what the future holds, least of all that group of crystal ball gazers known as economic forecasters. Most [...]

Macro: Residential Construction

By |2023-06-22T09:19:44-04:00June 21st, 2023|Alhambra Research, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Housing starts rebounded nicely in May to 1631 units from a revised lower 1340 units in April. Permits went up sequentially as well, just not as much. Both series are above the historic mean and median levels. Housing starts actually showed 5.7% growth YOY. Permits declined 12.7% from a year ago, this was a slower decline and the smallest decline [...]

Macro: Housing Starts and Permits

By |2023-05-24T11:20:47-04:00May 24th, 2023|Alhambra Research, Economy|

Housing starts and permits for April are running at a level of right around 1.4M units down from around 1.8M last year. That's a drop of 22% in starts and 21% in permits. 1.4M units is roughly in line with the long term average. The level of starts and permits is not yet concerning, but the slow down continues to [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Not So Evergrande

By |2021-09-27T07:01:42-04:00September 26th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

US stocks sold off last Monday due to fears over the potential - likely - failure of China Evergrande, a real estate developer that has suddenly discovered the perils of leverage. Well, that and the perils of being in an industry not currently favored by Xi Jinping. He has declared that houses are for living in, not speculating on, and [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: 1984

By |2021-06-28T07:38:58-04:00June 27th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows. George Orwell, 1984 I have said many times and believe deeply that our job as investors is not to predict the future but merely to interpret the present as accurately as we can. I've also said and believe deeply that doing [...]

If Some Economists Are No Longer Buying It

By |2020-02-26T17:26:35-05:00February 26th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Germany’s Finance Minister Olaf Scholz ignited and invited controversy today when he signaled that the federal government is looking at a possible suspension to constitutional budget measures. With a nasty political fight certain to follow, even temporarily adjourning the country’s so-called debt brake would not be easy. With Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party already in a precarious position, one might wonder, [...]

GDP And Revisions Highlight The Vulnerabilities

By |2019-07-26T17:05:10-04:00July 26th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It usually takes them a little while, a couple of benchmark adjustments to better conform to the true shape. Today’s GDP report included the latest revisions to the underlying data. Overall, not much changed. The changes are applied to Q1 2014 and forward, upping Real GDP growth slightly in 2015, adding a little bit more to the tail end of [...]

Housing: Going Wrong In The Few Things That Were Going Right

By |2019-07-18T17:23:50-04:00July 18th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It certainly doesn’t feel like a bubble. We’ve heard about home prices in many cities skyrocketing like there has been one, still there does seem to be something different. If it is a bubble, it sure isn’t the same as the last one, the big one fifteen years ago. Much is missing this time around. For one thing, prices are [...]

Three-For-One In Poor Housing Data

By |2019-05-21T12:23:40-04:00May 21st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We all know the shorthand. The Federal Reserve influences if not controls economic activity by raising and lowering the federal funds apparatus. Reducing the monetary policy targets is stimulus because everyone loves lower interest costs. Raising them therefore has the opposite effect. More direct and visible consequences are supposed to be observed first in the interest rate sensitive sectors of [...]

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