consumer prices

A Long Dollar Story: China’s Short Profits, Prices, and Producers

By |2018-09-10T16:59:18+00:00September 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the first half of the Great “Recession”, China and the rest of the EM world seemed immune. It was American subprime mortgages that we were told was causing all the problems, and if European banks had somehow gotten themselves entangled in the rotten real estate mess so much the better for where growth was [...]

ECB At A (Familiar) Crossroads

By |2018-08-31T17:05:54+00:00August 31st, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If Brazilian central bankers are the standard for illicit shamelessness, their European counterparts are at least on the same spectrum. At the end of April, the European Central Bank’s President Mario Draghi took his shot at purposeful mischaracterization. Speaking to the press after the ECB’s Governing Council meeting had concluded, Draghi had been forced to [...]

Overshadowing The Multi-year CPI High

By |2018-08-13T18:15:42+00:00August 13th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Overshadowed by the “dollar” last week was the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The BLS reported the US CPI had increased in July 2018 by the highest rate since December 2011. Running at 2.95% year-over-year, consumer prices accelerated a little from June’s pace. Not only that, the CPI’s core rate of inflation sped up to 2.35%. [...]

Ptolemy Strikes Again

By |2018-05-31T11:23:45+00:00May 31st, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Perhaps it is revenge for 2015’s residual seasonality breakout. Or maybe it is just being celebrated as delicious irony. Did the BEA just take revenge on the Fed? In early 2015, first the Philadelphia branch of the Federal Reserve and then its San Francisco arm both published essays essentially accusing the BEA of being unaware [...]

All The World’s A (Imagined) Labor Shortage

By |2018-05-11T11:20:48+00:00May 11th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last year’s infatuation with globally synchronized growth was at least understandable. From a certain, narrow point of view, Europe’s economy had accelerated. So, too, it seemed later in the year for the US economy. The Bank of Japan was actually talking about ending QQE with inflation in sight, and the PBOC was purportedly tightening as [...]