consumer spending

Housing Errors

By |2018-07-23T11:51:14+00:00July 23rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One way to read the inversion in eurodollar futures is that the market expects the Federal Reserve to ignore growing economic and financial concerns. There is a very reasonable basis for this structure given recent history. Central bankers and Economists have shown a remarkable, and remarkably consistent, ability to talk themselves out of any negative [...]

There Isn’t Supposed To Be The Two Directions of IP

By |2018-06-15T16:24:55+00:00June 15th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

US Industrial Production dipped in May 2018. It was the first monthly drop since January. Year-over-year, IP was up just 3.5% from May 2017, down from 3.6% in each of prior three months. The reason for the soft spot was that American industry is being pulled in different directions by the two most important sectors: [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: As Good As It Gets?

By |2018-06-05T16:50:25+00:00June 5th, 2018|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

In the last update I wondered if growth expectations - and growth - were breaking out to the upside. 10 year Treasury yields were well over the 3% threshold that seemed so ominous and TIPS yields were nearing 1%, a level not seen since early 2011. It looked like we might finally move to a [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Oil, Interest Rates & Economic Growth

By |2018-05-07T17:53:15+00:00May 7th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor|

The yield on the 10 year Treasury note briefly surpassed the supposedly important 3% barrier and then....nothing. So, maybe, contrary to all the commentary that placed such importance on that level, it was just another line on a chart and the bond bear market fear mongering told us a lot about the commentators and not [...]

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