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consumer spending

Fifteen Greater Than Fifty: Red Hot This Is Not

By |2021-05-14T17:43:07-04:00May 14th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

American consumers binged again in April, though not much more than they had in March. Previously delivered government stipends continue to inflate retail activity if not much else. According to the Census Bureau, retail sales rose “just” 0.7% last month when compared to the month before it. Given that March had been up (revised) nearly 11% versus February, any even [...]

Some Specifics of ‘Transitory’

By |2021-04-28T17:11:05-04:00April 28th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Silver linings have been hard to come by lately, especially last year. Twenty-twenty was a total washout in almost every way imaginable; and that’s an understatement. Still, there were some small signs of genuine progress such as Jay Powell’s thorough contribution to QE debunking. Bank reserves went sky high while practically nothing else did (other than equities), certainly not inflation. [...]

Perhaps Just One Word Absent From The Historic Consumer Splurge

By |2021-04-15T20:00:07-04:00April 15th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Enormous. Terrific. Unbelievable. Biggest ever. The superlatives for US consumer spending during the month of March 2021 are appropriate, and for once they aren’t caused by some artifact of arithmetic or some other trick. While there are absolutely some base effects within the numbers, these levels of retail sales are far and away more than those. It's so ridiculous that [...]

Spending Here, Production There, and What Autos Have To Do With It

By |2021-03-16T16:26:11-04:00March 16th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While the global inflation picture remains fixed at firmly normal (as in, disinflationary), US retail sales by contrast have been highly abnormal. You’d think given that, the consumer price part of the economic equation would, well, equate eventually price-wise. Consumers are spending, prices should be heading upward at a noticeable rate. To begin with, consumer spending – as pictured by [...]

Uncle Sam Was Back Having Consumers’ Backs

By |2021-02-17T17:41:07-05:00February 17th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Markets|

American consumers were back in action in January 2021. The “unemployment cliff” along with the slowdown and contraction in the labor market during the last quarter of 2020 had left retail sales falling backward with employment. Seasonally-adjusted, total retail spending had declined for three straight months to end last year.The latest updated estimates from the Census Bureau, released today, show [...]

Permanent Magic Number Hypothesis

By |2021-01-29T19:29:29-05:00January 29th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Is there a charmed fiscal number that unlocks the inflationary promised-land? Central bank Economists have spent more than a decade in the West, two in Japan, desperately seeking the magic number QE. Though their own research is substantial and conclusive that LSAP’s like QE don’t work, and never have, officials conclude instead that it always comes up short because it [...]

Just Like That, The Gigantic Positives Vanished

By |2021-01-28T20:09:31-05:00January 28th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If you remember 2018’s economic “boom”, you’ll likely recall that year’s second quarter. Set up by December 2017’s Tax Cut and Jobs Act, when the BEA published GDP estimates for those three months that July, the unusual 4% growth rate seemed to have confirmed the positive effects of tax reform “stimulus” funded by a substantial increase in the fiscal deficit. [...]

Consumers, Producers, and the Unsettled End of 2020

By |2021-01-15T17:30:18-05:00January 15th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The months of November and December aren’t always easily comparable year to year when it comes to American shopping habits. For a retailer, these are the big ones. The Christmas shopping season and the amount of spending which takes place during it makes or breaks the typical year (though last year, there was that whole thing in March and April [...]

Consumers, Too; (Un)Confident To Re-engage

By |2020-12-16T16:34:23-05:00December 16th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is a lot of evidence which shows some basis for expectations-based monetary policy. Much of what becomes a recession or worse is due to the psychological impacts upon businesses (who invest and hire) as well as workers being consumers (who earn and then spend). Once the snowball of macro contraction begins rolling downhill, rational prudence dictates some degree of [...]

Extending the Summer Slowdown

By |2020-11-17T16:15:23-05:00November 17th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A big splurge in September, and then not much more in October. While it would be consistent for many to focus on the former, instead there is much about the latter which, for once, is feeding growing concerns. Retail sales, American consumer spending on goods, has been the one (outside of economically insignificant housing) bright spot since summer. If it [...]

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