The mini-cycle in inventory has re-appeared in the latest two regional manufacturing surveys. Both the Empire Fed and Philly Fed indices have again fallen below zero, indicating a contraction in activity. However, it is the frequency of negative readings that is most relevant. Since the middle of 2012, both surveys (along with their three other regional Fed cousins) have been [...]
The headline employment growth for May 1974 totaled 165,000 jobs. That followed a weaker report from April where only 89,000 new jobs were created. Only a few months before, the headline beancount of job quantity was 304,000. For the seven months between November 1973 and May 1974, the headline averaged +135,000. That was notable because the entire period fell within [...]
This morning's retail sales figure from the Census Bureau shows a Y/Y increase (unadjusted) of only 1.79%. That is the second worst month since the recovery took hold in later 2009. The worst month was actually last month, which means the current condition in retail trade is, by far, the worst two months since the Great Recession. In fact, as [...]
Headline employment figures had been displaying a far better indication of the labor market than most of the internal, non-adjusted numbers for January and February. Unfortunately, in March the headline finally converged with disappointing internals rather than the other way around. In the Establishment Survey, the headline increase of 88k was far below expectations, and even below the lowest estimate. [...]
The ISM Manufacturing reports for January and February 2013 looked to be showing a noticeable rebound in manufacturing activity after some rather dicey months in the second half of 2012. I posited that this rebound was largely inconsistent with broader data (notably durable goods and factory orders) and explained them in the context of a potential inventory cycle heading into [...]
Final revisions to Q4 2012 GDP were out today, with little surprise nor any major changes. Personal consumption expenditures were slightly lower, from adding 1.52% to GDP in the advance estimate, to 1.47% in the first revision and finally down to 1.28%. To underscore just how weak these figures are, real gross domestic purchases (the purchase of goods and services [...]
Through January 31, about 54% of companies had reported and digested earnings announcements. Current estimates for operating earnings have been trimmed all the way back to $23.83 for S&P 500 companies, representing a year-over-year change of 0.42%. However, given the lack of momentum and the number of companies that have lowered and preannounced lower, Q4 is likely to see a [...]
Government spending and inventory builds were good in Q3, according to economists, when they pushed GDP accounting above expectations. Those same two economic accounts dramatically reduced economic activity in Q4, so economists are now intimating that the resulting contraction is something other than real. On the part of government spending, it probably should be ignored and certainly GDP is a [...]
Despite all the reported safety problems with the Dreamliner 787, Boeing had a terrific month to close out 2012. The company received 183 orders in December, a pickup in pace over the 124 in November (and the 101.8% decline for non-defense aircraft in August 2012). That led to a headline increase in total durable goods orders of 4.6%, cheering markets [...]
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