copper to gold ratio

Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2018

By |2018-08-15T13:36:41+00:00August 15th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

The Q2 GDP report (+4.1% from the previous quarter, annualized) was heralded by the administration as a great achievement and certainly putting a 4 handle on quarter to quarter growth has been rare this cycle, if not unheard of (Q4 '09, Q4 '11, Q2 & Q3 '14). But looking at the GDP change year over [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2018-07-19T18:59:24+00:00July 19th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Politics|

This will be a fairly quick update as I just posted a Mid-Year Review yesterday that covers a lot of the same ground.  There were, as you'll see below, some fairly positive reports since the last update but the markets are not responding to the better data. Markets seem to be more focused on the [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Welcome To The Slowdown

By |2018-07-07T23:53:47+00:00July 6th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Investing, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Politics, Stocks|

Welcome to the slowdown. It isn't much - yet - and it may just be a passing phase, but there is little doubt that the US economy has slowed somewhat. The rise in short term interest rates has stalled and the long end of the curve has rallied. The result is a flatter yield curve [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Oil, Interest Rates & Economic Growth

By |2018-05-07T17:53:15+00:00May 7th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor|

The yield on the 10 year Treasury note briefly surpassed the supposedly important 3% barrier and then....nothing. So, maybe, contrary to all the commentary that placed such importance on that level, it was just another line on a chart and the bond bear market fear mongering told us a lot about the commentators and not [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: One Down, Three To Go

By |2018-02-27T18:01:28+00:00February 27th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

Economic Reports Economic Growth & Investment We pay particular attention to broad based indicators of growth. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators are examples. We watch them because we are mostly interested in identifying inflection points in the broad economy and aren't as interested in the details.  Why? [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2018-02-13T12:45:00+00:00February 13th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor|

Economic Reports Economic Growth & Income Personal income for December was better than expected at up 0.4% on the month and 4.11% year over year. Wages and salaries were up 0.5%. Unfortunately, that rate of rise is not even up to the lower end of the range we've seen in past expansions when 5% income [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Housing Market Accelerates

By |2018-01-02T17:19:29+00:00January 2nd, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Investing, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The economy ended 2017 with current growth just slightly above trend. In general the reports of the last two weeks of the year were pretty good with housing a standout performer going into the new year. We are still trying to get past the impact - positive and negative - from the hurricanes a few [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: A Whirlwind of Data

By |2017-11-21T23:04:17+00:00November 21st, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

The economic data of the last two weeks was generally better than expected, the Citigroup Economic Surprise index near the highs of the year. Still, as I've warned repeatedly over the last few years, better than expected should not be confused with good. We go through mini-cycles all the time, the economy ebbing and flowing [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update: Step Away From The Portfolio

By |2017-09-22T14:35:31+00:00September 22nd, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Global Asset Allocation Update, Investing, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are no changes to the portfolios this month. The post Fed meeting market reaction was a bit surprising in its intensity. The actions of the Fed were, to [...]