cpi

Macro: CPI — Coming down very slowly

By |2023-12-12T16:18:41-05:00December 12th, 2023|Bonds, Commodities, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Headline CPI came in at 3.12% in November, that's .11% lower than October. From September to October the headline dropped .46%. For the year, we've averaged a monthly drop of .29%. So the pace of disinflation is slowing. Additionally, YOY changes in prices are still higher than June, so we've made no progress in the 2nd half of the year. [...]

Macro: Leading Economic Indicators — reflections of 2006?

By |2023-11-20T13:36:10-05:00November 20th, 2023|Economy|

"After a pause in September, the LEI resumed signaling recession in October." LEI signaling a shallow recession. The index is down 3.3% in the last 3 months and -.8% in October. I hate to compare cycles, but the machine does and there are certainly similarities. The similarities became apparent with the release of CPI last week. In June of 2006 [...]

Macro: Sep CPI stuck at 3.7% YOY

By |2023-10-13T03:39:59-04:00October 12th, 2023|Markets|

The most anticipated release of the week came in ... "Unchanged" or sticky stuck from August at 3.7% yoy. But it's worth mentioning as we will discuss below that this is up from June CPI which was 3.09% yoy. Core CPI which excludes food and energy because of their volatility sits at 4.13% yoy down from 4.39% last month. Let's [...]

What’s The Consensus Kenneth?

By |2023-06-25T15:11:36-04:00June 24th, 2023|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

I spend a lot of time thinking about what "everyone" else believes about the economy and markets. If you've been reading my weekly scribblings for any time, you know I have little faith in the soothsayers of this industry. No one knows what the future holds, least of all that group of crystal ball gazers known as economic forecasters. Most [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Maybe It Was Transitory After All

By |2023-01-17T07:34:03-05:00January 16th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The inflation report last week was met with a big sigh of relief by investors. Stocks and bonds rallied as the Fed's Whip Inflation Now project seems to be finally bearing some fruit. In reality, inflation peaked months ago but the Fed hadn't really caught on yet - they're a little slow - and the market has been fearing that [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Good News, Bad News

By |2022-11-14T07:21:49-05:00November 14th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

One thing I can tell you for certain about last week's big rally on Thursday and Friday: there were a lot of people who desperately wanted a good excuse to buy stocks. And buy they did after a better-than-expected CPI report Thursday morning, pushing the S&P 500 up nearly 6% on the week with all of that coming on Thursday [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Just A Little Volatility

By |2022-10-17T07:39:17-04:00October 16th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Markets were rather volatile last week. That's a wild understatement and what passes for sarcasm in the investment business. Stocks started the week waiting with bated (baited?) breath for the inflation reports of the week. It isn't surprising that the market is focused firmly on the rearview mirror for clues about the future since Jerome Powell has made it plain [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: What Changed?

By |2022-09-19T06:29:13-04:00September 18th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The S&P 500 fell 4.8% last week and is now down 19.4% year-to-date. Bonds were also down with yields up all across the yield curve. Gold was down 2.5% and the GSCI commodity index was down 2.3%. Rate-sensitive REITs were down nearly 6%. The list of what went up last week would be quicker: the dollar, platinum, silver, and some [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: No News Is…

By |2022-09-12T08:02:19-04:00September 11th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Nothing happened last week. Stocks and bonds and commodities continued to trade and move around in price but there was no news to which those movements could be attributed. The economic news was a trifle and what there was told us exactly nothing new about the economy. A report that wholesale inventories rose 0.6% cannot be turned into market moving [...]

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