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The Cautionary Tale of Undocumented Insanity

By |2021-02-10T19:35:15-05:00February 10th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Japan is just the name of a group of large islands on the far side of the Pacific from the United States. For most people, there’s not much else more to say beyond the charm of weird, ofttimes masochistic tendencies embedded within the inscrutably fascinating Japanese gameshows. Maybe something about suicidal demographics. The financial media has done such a poor [...]

If the Fed’s Not In Consumer Prices, Then How About Producer Prices?

By |2021-01-15T19:38:00-05:00January 15th, 2021|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not just that there isn’t much inflation evident in consumer prices. Rather, it’s a pretty big deal given the deluge of so much “money printing” this year, begun three-quarters of a year before, that consumer prices are increasing at some of the slowest rates in the data. Trillions in bank reserves, sure, but actual money can only be missing. [...]

Suasion, Sure, But Is It Really Moral?

By |2021-01-13T18:07:43-05:00January 13th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One of the concepts educators sort of snuck into the curriculum was something they called “moral suasion.” This term has meanings outside of Economics, but within the discipline it refers to one key element to the monetary policies of central banks. Basically, persuading markets or economic groups to act in the way officials want using rhetoric or threats without having [...]

Inflation Hysteria #2 (Slack-edotes)

By |2020-12-10T19:54:05-05:00December 10th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Macroeconomic slack is such an easy, intuitive concept that only Economists and central bankers (same thing) could possibly mess it up. But mess it up they have. Spending years talking about a labor shortage, and getting the financial media to report this as fact, those at the Federal Reserve, in particular, pointed to this as proof QE and ZIRP had [...]

Talk About Putting All Your 蛋 In One 篮

By |2020-12-09T19:40:04-05:00December 9th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I’m not exactly sure how you translate the English word “hope” into Chinese, though Google’s translate algo tells me this is what it’d be: 希望. For the global economy to have any chance of just making next year less awful than it’s already predicted to be (by the optimists), the OECD declared China essential to the fanciful anticipation.As noted before, [...]

Deflation Returns To Japan, Part 2

By |2020-11-20T19:23:16-05:00November 20th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Japan Finance Minister Taro Aso, who is also Deputy Prime Minister, caused a global stir of sorts back in early June when he appeared to express something like Japanese racial superiority at least with respect to how that country was handling the COVID pandemic. For a country with a population of more than 126 million, the case counts and mortality [...]

QQE To The Moon, *Deflation* Returns to Japan Anyway

By |2020-11-20T17:03:38-05:00November 20th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If it shows up at the Federal Reserve, you can pretty much bet everything you own that it was tried out at the Bank of Japan first. And if it was the brilliant brainchild of someone at the BoJ, then you’re guaranteed it failed spectacularly. Which means, obviously, the “ideal” technocrats at the Fed intentionally copied something they knew had [...]

Where Is It, Chairman Powell?

By |2020-11-12T19:47:11-05:00November 12th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Where is it, Chairman Powell? After spending months deliberately hyping a “flood” of digital money printing, and then unleashing average inflation targeting making Americans believe the central bank will be wickedly irresponsible when it comes to consumer prices, the evidence portrays a very different set of circumstance. Inflationary pressures were supposed to have been visible by now, seven months and [...]

Meanwhile, Outside Today’s DC

By |2020-11-03T17:34:17-05:00November 3rd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

With all eyes on Washington DC, today, everyone should instead be focused on Europe. As we’ve written for nearly three years now, for nearly three years Europe has been at the unfortunate forefront of Euro$ #4. We could argue about whether coming out of GFC2 back in March pushed everything into a Reflation #4 – possible - or if this [...]

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