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credit bubble

Bubbles and Balance Sheets, Demanded (Money/Credit) Supply

By |2020-09-25T19:54:32-04:00September 25th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The term “balance sheet recession” is one that had come up more often a little more than half a decade ago. At the same time everyone at the Fed, especially Bill Dudley, was wondering why QE had kept coming up (way) short of every one of its goals, some of them began to speculate about this other thing. If the [...]

In A Booming Economy, You Borrow And Build

By |2018-11-15T18:01:36-05:00November 15th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We often forget, the middle 2000’s was not uniquely a housing bubble. It commanded our attention because that’s what ended up affecting so many Americans personally; whether foreclosures or just the negative “wealth effect” of declining real estate values. This was also pretty easy to understand, an asset bubble though complicated in its full manifestations intuitive as a result. There [...]

China’s Wolf

By |2014-03-12T11:45:49-04:00March 12th, 2014|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The core of 2014 Chinese defaults is really about control, as it ever is in 21st century finance. Central banks believe they have it and can exercise it with precision, a mysticism that is accepted widely by market participants. In allowing smaller firms to default, they are sending the signal that they want greater order in what is near-universally recognized [...]

China’s Trade, Dollar and Japan Problems

By |2014-03-10T16:41:57-04:00March 10th, 2014|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

So far in China this year there have been defaults and “bailouts” in the credit markets, but they are tiny in relative comparison to everything else. That they have occurred at all is why they have grabbed so much attention. We all have some inkling of the credit and monetary inequities that are roiling inside the Chinese economic gut, but [...]

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